Ukraine’s grain exports in 2024/25 are forecast to be significantly lower than last season as production of corn and wheat continue the slow decline kicked off by Russia’s invasion. In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA also made cuts to Ukraine’s projected 2024/25 grain exports, on top of previous forecasts already calling for steep declines from last year.
According to the latest WASDE, Ukraine’s 24/25 corn production will reach just 26.5 million metric tons, down from 32.5 MMT in 23/24. Meanwhile, corn exports are projected at 22 MMT, down from nearly 30 MMT last year. As for wheat, Ukraine forecasted production of 22.9 MMT in 24/25 is down only slightly from 23 MMT last year. However, exports are expected to fall to 15.5 MMT from nearly 18.6 MMT in 23.24.
In its most recent “Grain and Feed Quarterly,” USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) Post in Ukraine noted that there are two main factors limiting the country’s exports. The first is the depletion of ending stocks accumulated primarily in calendar year 2022 due to the full-scale Russian invasion. The second is lower production estimates for corn, which is the backbone of grain exports.
According to a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization and think tank, Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s agriculture sector precipitated a substantial decrease in Ukraine’s harvested land area. While Ukraine’s ag sector is adapting, it has nonetheless resulted in reduced farming and export capacity.
Amid soaring input, storage, processing, transport, and other costs since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, CSIS says farmers who can continue planting have shifted away from grain crops and toward oilseeds. That assessment tracks with USDA data, which shows Ukraine corn production peaked at just over 42 MMT in 2021/22 compared to 26.5 projected in 24/25. Wheat production in 2021/22 was a little over 33 MMT versus 22.9 MMT in 24/25.
Oilseed production has not really climbed but it has held remarkably steady due to farmers switching crops. Combined oilseed production (rapeseed, soybeans, and sunflowers) in 24/25 is projected at 23.2 MMT versus 25.5 last year and 24.3 in 21/22. Exports, by contrast, have soared. USDA projects 24/25 combined oilseed exports at 7.6 MMT, up from 7.3 million last year and 5.7 MMT in 21/22.
For what it’s worth, CSIS says the destruction of Ukraine’s agricultural sector advances the Kremlin’s political and economic goals. Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly stated Moscow’s intent to “replace Ukrainian grain” on global markets, while former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared food to be Russia’s “silent weapon” for rewarding “friends” and punishing “enemies.”
