Today on FARMCON Conversations, Kevin and I get into a question that may make some people uncomfortable: is straight farming, by itself, still a durable enough business model for most families? That conversation takes us into why Kevin believes free cash flow and additional revenue streams are becoming increasingly important, why a producer’s cost of production does not determine the global price of a commodity, and why some families may eventually have to make a much bigger decision about where and how they operate. We also cover the current corn and soybean setup, Kevin’s approach to avoiding major investing mistakes, what customers really want from service businesses, and why there is a huge difference between having ideas and actually getting the ball across the goal line.
FARMCON + BUSINESS
8:45 — Is farming alone still enough? – Kevin explains why some of the strongest rural families he knows have built one, two or three additional businesses around the farm instead of depending entirely on production agriculture for profitability. His bigger point is that additional businesses can create the free cash flow needed to solve problems and stay aggressive when farming itself is struggling.
13:00 — What FARMCON was actually built to do – Kevin says FARMCON was never designed to teach people how to grow a better crop. The goal is to bring business ideas, business models, outside thinking and tools into rural America that can help families improve cash flow and build stronger businesses around the farm.
16:00 — Young people may have more opportunity in agriculture than they realize – Kevin argues that getting into agriculture does not have to mean starting with 1,000 acres and a full line of equipment. Land, trucks, equipment, relationships and agricultural knowledge can become the starting assets for entirely different revenue streams.
MARKETS
22:00 — Corn: even if USDA lowers the yield, then what? – Kevin pushes back on the idea that a lower yield automatically creates a major bull story. Even with a meaningful yield reduction, he still sees ample supply and believes the market needs either a substantially stronger demand catalyst or a new production problem to materially change the outlook.
35:00 — Your cost of production does not set the price – Kevin says one of the most dangerous assumptions in commodity businesses is believing price “has” to rise simply because your own production costs are higher. U.S. corn, wheat and other commodities compete against producers around the world who may have cheaper land, labor and inputs. Wheat is becoming the warning sign of what happens when the U.S. loses cost competitiveness.
48:30 — “Pick change before change picks you” – Kevin argues that some families may ultimately have to reconsider where they farm, what they produce or whether they remain in the business at all. Somewhere in every family tree, somebody made a difficult decision to move, change or start over—and he believes another generation may eventually have to do the same.
52:00 — Soybeans – Kevin remains more constructive on beans than corn but wants either a deeper pullback or stronger upside confirmation before becoming aggressive. He believes the longer-term demand story may still provide another opportunity.
INVESTING + DECISION MAKING
54:00 — Kevin is still comfortable holding cash – With returns above 5% available in relatively straightforward investments, Kevin sees little reason to force money into something where he does not believe he has an edge. His approach remains basic blocking and tackling rather than reaching for returns.
57:30 — Great investors don’t necessarily make better shots—they make smaller mistakes – Kevin compares investing with golf, pitching and poker. The real skill is avoiding the blowup: the lost ball, the five-run inning or the “second-best hand” that keeps you betting until the damage becomes enormous.
BUSINESS
1:02:00 — Your customer may not want the cheapest option – Kevin uses his own frustrations with insurance to make a broader business point: sophisticated customers often care more about reducing friction, headaches and wasted time than saving the last few dollars. The job is understanding what your particular customer actually values.
1:07:00 — Ideas are easy. Can you get the ball across the goal line? – Kevin explains how he evaluates people who want to run projects or businesses. Plenty of people can start with a great idea, but very few can keep driving through setbacks, penalties and problems until something is actually completed.
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