“It’s not bringing in the new ideas that’s so hard. It’s getting rid of the old ones.” —
John Maynard Keynes
Today on FARMCON Conversations, we’re joined by longtime friend and FARMCON partner Ken Packard of StoneX.Ken has spent more than 30 years in commodity futures and agricultural risk management, and our conversation quickly moved to how producers manage the entire business — revenue, inputs, interest rates, information, decision-making and the risks they may not even realize they’re carrying.
45:00 — Ken Packard joins FARMCON Conversations
Kevin and Ken go back nearly 30 years to their early days in the commodity business. Ken now serves as Regional Director of Commodity Futures Client Management at StoneX.
47:00 — StoneX is much more than grain hedging
Ken explains how StoneX has evolved into a global financial-services company connecting clients to commodity and financial markets, execution, clearing, technology, research and physical trading.
49:30 — What are producers asking about right now?
Prices have improved, but Ken says the real question isn’t simply whether to sell corn or beans. It’s understanding the entire hand of cards an operation is holding — old crop, new crop, storage, breakevens, sales and input exposure — before making the next decision.
52:30 — Producers can now hedge fertilizer
The CME recently introduced a smaller 10-ton urea futures contract, creating a tool scaled more appropriately for individual producers rather than large retailers.
58:00 — The generational change happening on farms
Ken is seeing fathers increasingly encourage the next generation to develop marketing and risk-management skills they themselves may not have had time to build. His point isn’t that the old generation did it wrong. It’s that the markets are changing — and the next generation needs a larger toolbox.
1:01:00 — “I’m too busy” may be one of the biggest business risks
One of the strongest parts of our conversation. Ken says some of the most successful operators deliberately make time to get their heads out of the daily grind, have conversations, test ideas and make decisions. Being busy running the farm can easily prevent you from actually building the business.
1:04:00 — Kevin: There are really only two ways to grow
Either reinvest the cash your business generates back into your own business, or take that capital and invest it into someone else’s business that can compound it better. That’s the growth mindset Kevin believes separates operators who simply stay busy from those who deliberately build wealth.
KEVIN & TODD — COMMODITIES, DIESEL & CAPITAL
6:00 — Corn may need demand to do the heavy lifting
Kevin believes the production story is becoming increasingly known.The question now is whether demand — particularly exports — can become strong enough to attract the next round of buyers necessary to push corn materially higher.
9:30 — Why bullish headlines aren’t always enough
At $5.50 corn, a new speculative buyer needs to believe the upside materially outweighs the downside. Kevin explains why commodity markets can sometimes receive bullish news and still fail to rally: the market simply doesn’t attract enough new money.
11:00 — Commodities and stocks don’t trade the same way
A useful market lesson from Kevin: Stocks can continually attract investors who accumulate and hold. In commodities, every buyer still needs a seller. As prices rise, increasingly powerful reasons are required to attract the next buyer.
17:00 — Soybeans still have a demand story
China continues buying U.S. soybeans, although much of the purchasing is still coming through state entities rather than commercial crushers. Kevin believes beans remain fundamentally different from wheat because soybeans still have a longer-term demand story underneath them.
21:00 — Wheat has bullish headlines. What it doesn’t yet have is demand confirmation.
Black Sea infrastructure disruptions continue creating risk, but U.S. export demand hasn’t responded strongly enough.Kevin’s distinction is important: Right now wheat is a dislocation story — not yet a demand story.
26:00 — Could diesel create unexpected basis opportunities?
If trucks become more expensive to operate — or simply stop running — grain may not move as easily from the farm to the end user. Kevin and I discuss why producers should pay especially close attention to local basis, because transportation disruptions could create very different opportunities from one region to another.
30:00 — Why freight inflation hits agriculture differently
It’s easy to spread another $1,000 of freight across a truckload of expensive electronics. It’s much harder to spread it across lettuce, watermelon, grain or other relatively low-value bulk commodities. That distinction matters throughout the agricultural supply chain.
35:00 — The Fed and the 10-speed bicycle
Kevin compares the Fed to someone controlling the gears on a bicycle. Make it too difficult for the consumer to keep pedaling and eventually they hit the brakes. And when the consumer goes over the handlebars, that’s when much larger economic problems begin.
36:00 — AI spending may be much harder to slow than policymakers think
Higher rates may pressure normal businesses and consumers. But Kevin doesn’t believe a quarter-point — or even substantially more — necessarily stops the largest technology companies from continuing the AI infrastructure race. There is too much capital and too much strategic importance already committed.
38:00 — Why Kevin is carrying more cash
With global rates rising, energy expensive and the Fed tightening, Kevin says he’s becoming increasingly cautious. He’s reduced exposure and is holding roughly 40% cash, while concentrating remaining investments in businesses he’d be comfortable owning through a difficult market environment.
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