The USDA recently released an interesting analysis, “The Rise and Fall of Bulk Commodities (As a Share of Total U.S. Agricultural Exports).” The report finds that major bulk commodities, as a share of total U.S. agricultural exports, have risen and fallen dramatically since 2020. Beyond short-term price volatilities that have largely driven these developments, changes to the largest overseas market and an increasingly competitive landscape also affect the prospect for major U.S. bulk exports.
Major bulk commodities include grains, soybeans, and cotton. On average between 2014 and 2020, these commodities comprised 31% of U.S. agricultural exports. In 2021, their share rose to 36% before swelling to 38% in FY 2022. Since then, however, that share has steadily declined and is projected to be 28.5% by USDA for FY 2025 (based on May 2025 WASDE), the lowest level on record. In contrast, high-value product exports, consisting predominantly of intermediate and consumer-oriented products, remained comparatively stable.
The volatility of bulk exports stems from the susceptibility of field crops to global supply shocks. In any given year, bulk export values can be affected by weather, other environmental factors, geopolitical events, and significant shifts in both volumes and unit values. Still, farm commodity prices constitute only a small portion of the cost of food at the retail level.
Food price inflation during the 2008-2012 period saw bulk export values rise faster than high-value products, and the subsequent price corrections were also more drastic. The more recent price run-ups in 2020-2022 and ensuing price declines have traced a similar pattern, albeit with more geopolitical complexities than the previous price crises.
2020-2022 – Between March 2020 and March 2022, prices of soybeans, wheat, and other grains surged +88% due to multiple factors, including strong global demand, smaller world supplies, tightening stocks in major exporting countries, rising energy and fertilizer costs, export restrictions, major supply chain disruptions that pushed up transportation costs, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to the World Bank, global grain and oilseed prices reached record levels in April and May of 2022, eclipsing previous highs during the 2008 and 2012 food price crises. Besides rising prices, bulk export volumes also increased, thanks in part to the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement inked during President Trump’s first term. This coincided with China’s recovery from African swine fever (ASF) and herd rebuilding efforts that saw drastic increases in soybean and feed grain demand. Between FY 2020 and FY 2022, U.S. major bulk export volumes increased +15%, with China accounting for most of this increase.
2022-Present – The unprecedented pressure facing global supply chains during the pandemic began to ease in late 2021. In 2023, however, weather-related events and conflicts have increased shipping costs and caused longer travel times. Drought conditions caused by El Niño led to reduced trade flow capacity through the Panama Canal starting in mid-2023. In November 2023, Houthi forces began attacking ships transiting the Red Sea, impacting Suez Canal throughput and causing shipping companies to re-route traffic. Trade flow through the Panama Canal has since recovered, and overall pressure on the global supply chain is similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Ukraine’s resilience as a major agricultural exporter in spite of war and repeated setbacks has helped lower global food price inflation. With the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) established in July 2022, Ukraine regained access to its most cost-effective Black Sea ports. In addition, Ukraine also expanded alternative export routes. When Russia refused to renew the BSGI in July 2023, Ukraine independently restored Black Sea port access via a new corridor and ramped up exports. In 2024, Ukraine exported $24.7 billion of agricultural products, nearing its pre-war levels.
Natural gas prices began to fall sharply after peaking in August 2022, helped by unseasonably warm weather, reduced demand, and improved energy efficiency. As natural gas is a key input in fertilizer production, falling natural gas prices also helped reduce fertilizer costs. Crude oil prices also began to retreat in late 2022, contributing to moderating agricultural bulk commodity prices.
Ample world supplies are another vital reason prices are retreating, thus creating a divergence between export volume and value. At the same time, China’s demand for imported bulk commodities, especially from the United States, has faded. China is the world’s largest bulk importer by far, buying $68.8 billion of oilseeds, grains, and cotton in 2024, more than four times the amount sourced by the second-largest bulk buyer, the EU.
As the largest destination for U.S. bulk commodities, China accounted for one-third of U.S. bulk exports in terms of value in recent years. Soybeans, cotton, sorghum, wheat, and corn typically comprised more than 70% of total U.S. agricultural sales to China, though that share fell during the trade war in 2018 and 2019.
China’s currently imposed tariffs are expected to bring renewed challenges for U.S. producers. Even before the PRC’s latest tariff actions, the outlook of U.S. bulk exports to China was already clouded by economic uncertainties and the country’s transition from importing primarily bulk commodities to buying increasingly more consumer-oriented products. U.S. corn exports to China fell -80% in 2024 and continued to slide in 2025. U.S. sorghum exports tumbled -96% in January through March of 2025 compared to a year ago.
When the PRC imposed tariffs on U.S. products in 2018-19, China turned to other countries to meet its import demand, which dovetailed with its long-term effort to diversify its suppliers. Bulk commodities are relatively fungible worldwide, as standardization and homogeneity make them easily interchangeable from one source to another. Brazil was the largest beneficiary, increasing its market share in China from 21% to 27%.
Twenty years ago, the United States was the world’s largest exporter of corn, wheat, and soybeans, with market shares of 68%, 24%, and 40%, respectively (volume basis). By 2024, those shares had fallen to 30%, 9%, and 26%. In 2023, the United States was dethroned by Brazil as the world’s largest corn exporter. Other corn exporters, such as Argentina and Ukraine, have also chipped away at the U.S. share over the years. For wheat, the EU and Black Sea (Russia and Ukraine) have gained prominence in recent years, with Russia leading world wheat exports during the last 5 years. For soybeans, Brazil supplanted the United States as the leading supplier in 2013. Brazil is now the third-largest overall agricultural exporter, after the EU and the United States. For more details, check out the full report HERE.
