Brazil corn growers have finished up second-crop, aka “safrinha” planting, while producers in Argentina are ramping up harvest. Below are a few more details…
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, which is planted directly following their soybean harvest, is one of the country’s most important exports. Typically planted in January-March, the safrinha crop, which means “little harvest” in Portuguese, now accounts for over +70% of Brazil’s total corn production and three-quarters of the country’s total corn exports. Safrinha harvest typically runs June-August. The first corn crop sometimes referred to as the summer crop, is usually harvested in February-April and primarily supplies the domestic livestock market.
Brazil’s crop agency CONAB pegs total 2024/25 corn production at 122.76 MMT vs. 126.00 MMT forecast by the USDA. Both of those estimates are substantially larger than last year’s disappointing crop, which the USDA estimated at 119 MMT, though the CONAB had it a bit lower at 115.72 MMT. There seems to be some debate about “acres” when you start comparing USDA and CONAB estimates. Most of this season’s increased corn production stems from the “second crop,” which CONAB pegs at 95.5 MMT vs just over 90 MMT in 2023/24. First crop corn harvest this season was 24.86 MMT vs 22.96 previously, so they added a couple of million tons there as well.
Planting of this year’s safrinha crop is essentially complete. There is some ongoing dryness in south-central Brazil. This region includes key production states Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, so weather developments will continue to be closely watched. Experts say that March-April rains will be vital for these crops to perform during the upcoming dry season. Brazil’s dry season generally runs from May to November and is experienced more strongly in the south.
Argentina’s corn harvest is currently closing in on 15% complete. The crop was subjected to extremely dry weather up until just a few weeks ago. Forecasters say timely rains have since helped stabilize the crop and boosted prospects for later planted corn. At the same time, overly wet conditions are becoming a concern in some areas, although this is not largely widespread at the moment. The USDA estimates Argentina’s corn crop to be 50 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange maintains an outlook of 46 MMT. This came after three consecutive weeks of crop condition ratings improving thanks to much-needed rains. I personally think the production number ultimately lands somewhere between 48 and 49 MMTs.
Not long ago, some were speculating that Argentina’s corn production might be in a downward spiral due to a slew of unfavorable circumstances, including intense disease pressure caused by an infestation of “corn leafhoppers” during the 2023/24 growing season. However, leafhopper monitoring indicates that insect levels were down some -90% early in the growing season, allowing many farmers time to move forward with more corn planting. Agronomists say leafhopper pressure is limited to just a handful of areas that are somewhat insignificant regarding total Argentina corn production. Another thing working to boost their corn production is Argentine President Javier Milei’s move to lower export taxes, which now stand at 9.5% versus 12% previously.
