The decimation of U.S. poultry flocks from the ongoing HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) outbreak continues to push egg prices to new heights, with no end in sight. Over 20 million egg-laying hens were lost to the disease in Q4 2024, including over 13 million in December alone. In January, another 14 million birds were lost, representing 6.5% of the conventional caged layer flock. After three years of fighting what has been a relentless uphill battle against HPAI, many in the poultry industry are now looking for a better solution.
In its latest egg market update, USDA noted that egg demand remains “moderate to good,” but the supply situation still only ranges from ”very light to moderate.” The overall shell egg inventory declined -2% and the national inventory of Large class shell eggs lost -1% in the last week of January. At the same time, wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States increased +$0.85 to +$3.90 per dozen.
Record egg prices are increasingly being passed onto consumers now, too, as cushioning the blow becomes unsustainable for retailers and restaurants alike. The average price per dozen of Large eggs was $4.10 at the end of 2024, twice as much as in August 2023. In early February, Waffle House announced a 50 cent surcharge on egg dishes, and many other restaurants across the country have followed suit.
Supply and prices will stabilize only when farms and producers can recover their stocks from bird flu, according to the USDA. So far, the only tools producers have to fight the outbreak are standard biosecurity measures. While these efforts are generally very effective at preventing the spread of many pathogens, this “best defense” simply isn’t enough to bring the virus under control.
Controlling the virus is an increasing challenge due to the fact that it’s become so entrenched in the global environment, according to disease experts. Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, says egg producers are taking intensive measures to outrun the virus.
“They have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in improvements, everything from truck washing stations, which is washing every truck from the Fedex man to the feed truck and everything in between,” Metz told NPR. And yet, Metz said, “all the measures we’re doing are still getting beat by this virus.”
Chad Gregory, president and CEO, United Egg Producers (UEP), has called on government and the poultry industry to find new ways to address the crisis. In a recent press release, Gregory said, “Expanded government attention to solutions that will halt the onslaught of HPAI is essential.” Gregory added, “UEP also supports development of effective HPAI vaccinations for dairy cows and poultry that can be deployed ASAP to help end or significantly mitigate the circulation of the virus in dairy herds, commercial poultry flocks and egg layer operations.”
The USDA announced in January that it was drawing up a new stockpile of poultry vaccines that will target the D1.1 genotype of the H5N1 strain, which has been spreading in wild birds and was recently to blame for a fatal human case in Louisiana. However, officials at the time said it’s unlikely the vaccine will be used.
That’s because vaccinating U.S. poultry remains highly controversial as it could pose a risk to U.S. poultry exports. John Clifford, former Chief Veterinary Officer for the USDA and an advisor for the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council says vaccination can lower the severity of disease in poultry, which could potentially mask infections and bring the virus across borders.
“If we vaccinate, we not only lose $6 billion potentially in exports a year,” Clifford said. “If they shut us off, that product comes back on the US market.” Clifford says that could cost the industry $18 billion domestically, as well as the loss over 200,000 agricultural jobs.
For what it’s worth, France launched a vaccination campaign in ducks in 2023 and was immediately hit with import bans by the U.S., Canada, and other countries. However, between Autumn 2023 and April 2024, the country reported only 10 bird flu outbreaks compared to 315 during the same period the previous year.
I should also mention that the crisis is costing the U.S. government a fortune. According to USDA, it has spent around $1.4 billion since the outbreak started in 2022. Approximately $1.25 billion was payments to farmers for the more than 100 million birds that have been culled. (Sources: USDA, Reuters, Poultry Producer, WattAgNet)
