As Brazil’s farmers look to start planting 2024/25 crops, a severe drought is causing delays and raising the possibility of lower acreage than initially planned. Corn planting is progressing slowly in the South, while most soybean producers are said to be still waiting for rain before they even get in the fields.
According to NASA’s Earth Observatory, large parts of South America have experienced significant rainfall deficits over the past three months, leading to “exceptional drought” over much of the central and northern parts of the continent. Brazil’s Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts Center (CEMADEN) noted on September 5 that the drought has been ongoing since the second half of 2023 in many municipalities, especially in the strip that goes from Acre and Amazonas to São Paulo and western Minas Gerais.
Drought conditions intensified between May and August of this year and is already one of the longest and most intense in modern history. CEMADEN notes that the current dry season began early, in April, with the soil and vegetation beginning to lose moisture prematurely. The current dry season also has been drier than normal, including large regions that have not received any precipitation since May. Consistently above-normal temperatures have exacerbated the dry conditions. Brazil’s CEMADEN blames the intensifying drought on the El Niño phenomenon, climate change, and changes in land use that have degraded important sources of humidity.
CEMADEN says the Central-West, part of the Southeast, and Northeast regions are the most affected by the water deficit, with more than 100 consecutive days without precipitation, especially in Goiás and parts of the states of Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. Some of the worst affected areas haven’t seen a drop of rain in over 150 days. Mato Grosso is Brazil’s biggest corn and soybean production state, accounting for about 44% of total corn output and 26% of soybean production. Goiás and Minas Gerais are also among the top corn and soybean production states.
Brazil’s first-crop corn, which is in the early planting stages, accounts for only about 20% of total production and supplies mostly the domestic market. Second-crop, or “safrinha” corn is more important for exports and gets planted starting in January, immediately following soybean harvest.
Right now, farmers in the country’s key center-south region are off to a slowish start with first-crop corn planting. AgRural reported on September 9 that 15% of the planned area had been sown versus 17% last year and 8% the previous week, so it’s not too far behind. AgRural previously estimated that first-crop corn acreage will decline by -3.5% due to a combination of low prices and potential for production setbacks from the incoming La Niña weather pattern.
As for soybeans, AgRural says planting of the 2024/25 crop has not even started due to the extreme dry conditions. “With little rain on the radar and very high temperatures, planting equipment tends to remain in the sheds until more consistent signs of rain appear,” the consultancy said in a statement. In normal years, the country would already be in the rainy season, which usually starts around September 1. However, weather forecasts show no chance for rain until the last-half of the month, at the earliest, and possibly not until early October.
Soybean yields shouldn’t be impacted by late planting but if harvest runs late, it could dent second-crop corn acreage. Safrinha farmers always aim to get the soybeans harvested and corn in the ground in January-February. Pushing planting into March runs the risk of the crop running out of moisture when the rainy season ends starting in mid to late May.
A delay in soybean planting and a continuation of dry conditions could also lead to even lower soybean acres in Brazil this season. AgRural last week said it already expected Brazil’s soybean acreage to grow just under +1%, the slowest pace in nearly two decades. Still, AgRural’s most recent estimate pegs Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production at 168.0 million metric tons, versus USDA’s estimate of 153 MMT for 2023/24. (Sources: Reuters, AgRural, Folha, NASA)
