| Though summer may be ending on the calendar in just under three weeks with the autumnal equinox, an unusually cold weather system from the Gulf of Alaska has already interrupted summer along the West Coast of the United States, bringing snow to Washington state’s Mount Rainier and a lookout point of California’s Sierra Nevada. This past Labor Day weekend is often referred to as the “unofficial end” to our summer season. And meteorologically speaking, it is the official start to fall, so there is a bit of truth to that. The meteorological fall began Sunday, September 1 and the autumnal equinox occurs September 22, leaving many in the trade looking for temperatures to really start cooling down. With this in mind, I think it’s interesting to look at when the first freeze typically occurs all across the nation. It’s important to note that these are simply median dates, and different weather patterns each fall can make your first 32-degree temperature occur much earlier or much later than what is shown on the maps and data below. Northern Plains and Upper Midwest – September 15: The average first freeze occurs sometime around Sept. 15 for much of the Rockies and Intermountain West, as well as parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest (closer to the international border). Some inland areas of the upper Great Lakes also see their first freeze around Sept.15. West and Midwest – October 1: A large swath of the West and Midwest sees their first freeze sometime near October 1. This includes much of the Great Basin, northern Plains, upper Midwest and parts of the upper Great Lakes. Most of the Adirondacks and Catskills in New York experience 32-degree temperatures around October 1, along with the Appalachians from west-central Pennsylvania down into eastern West Virginia. The majority of New England also gets its first freeze around October 1, on average. Northern Southwest, Central Plains, Smokey Mountains – October 15: A large area of the country averages the first freeze in mid-October. Parts of the northern Southwest, much of the central Plains, parts of the upper and mid-Mississippi Valley, much of the Great Lakes, the northern Ohio Valley and a large swath of the Northeast generally reach 32 degrees around Oct. 15. The Great Smoky Mountains in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina also have their first freeze near Oct. 15, as well as the Shenandoah Valley of western Virginia and much of West Virginia. Southwest, Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Northeast – November 1: Parts of the Southwest, southern Plains, mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and mid-Atlantic don’t see their first freeze, on average, until Nov. 1. The major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor, from New York City to Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C., are included in not seeing 32-degree temperatures until about Nov. 1. This is due to the urban heat island effect, keeping cities warmer than their suburbs overnight. Southwest, Southeast – November 15: Parts of Southern California, the Southwest, southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast don’t see their first freeze until November 15 on average. The southernmost portions of these regions may not see 32-degree temperatures at all, such as southeastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama, the coastal Carolinas, southern Georgia and all of Florida. |
| What’s the 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac Saying About Our Upcoming Winter? The Old Farmer’s Almanac (OFA) was founded in 1792 and has been releasing annual long-range weather forecasts for centuries. Keep in mind, 1792 was 94 years before cars were introduced and 111 years prior to the first airplane flight. The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac comes with a winter forecast very different from last year, as temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States. Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief, reports: “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter—potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.” There are a few outliers, though, and some portions of America will be much more rainy or snowy than usual. Residents of Florida, parts of the South, and the lower portion of California should keep their umbrellas handy. And individuals who reside in the Rockies, central and southern Appalachia, and western Ohio Valley will have prime conditions for sledding and skiing and putting their snow blowers or shovels to good use. Below are some specific weather predictions in the Midwest. The Old Farmer’s Almanac can be found anywhere books and magazines are sold. Click HERE to purchase your copy today! Lower Lakes: If you dream of a White Christmas, this section of the country that includes Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania could be a wonderful place to celebrate. Snowfall rates will probably be below average, except during late December, from late January into early February, and from late February into early March. As for temperatures, they’ll be warmer in the east and colder in the west. Ohio Valley: Keep those extra blankets nearby as this Valley is one of few parts of the U.S. that will be more blustery than typical as the Almanac is forecasting about 4°F below average. Late January through early February and late February will be the chilliest times. Additionally, this is when these states will be hit with above-normal snowfall. Deep South: Warm and wet is what locals in Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and nearby states can anticipate this winter. Across the board, the authors anticipate a 2°F warmer winter with just a few colder spells in early and late November, from late January into early February, and in late February. Upper Midwest: Those who call Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the northern part of Michigan home are hearty folks, and they normally have to conquer frigid and blizzard-spiked seasons. This year the Upper Midwest will be less snowy and slightly warmer than standard. Snow is still predicted to fly throughout the season, including in late November, late December, mid- and late January, early February, and mid-March. Heartland: People with roots planted in Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, and eastern Kansas can plan on a warmer and dryer winter this year. Just be ready with soup and tea in late January as well as early late February, when snow and cold will come in tandem. Texas-Oklahoma: Those who suffered through the brutal ice storms and power outages a couple years ago can take a deep breath and exhale a sigh of relief as winter 2024 will be warm and dry from the stretch that spans from San Antonio to Oklahoma City. The best chances for snow and slightly colder conditions appear to be in early and late February. High Plains: Warm weather and normal snowfall levels await those who call cities like Amarillo, Denver, Bismarck, and Billings home. Those flurries and snowflakes will be scattered fairly evenly throughout the season, with heaviest levels expected mid-November, mid- and late January, and late February. |
