The Van Trump Report

New Reality in the Global Soybean Market

For the better part of a year, African Swine Fever has been roiling the global soybean complex. Now we have new data from China’s Ministry of Ag and Rural Affairs reporting that the pig herd has declined by -20% since ASF was first reported in early August 2018, and China’s feed demand and soybean imports are projected to fall dramatically from earlier forecasts. Overall, the global soybean market faces a potential -42 million metric ton accumulated decline in China’s soybean import demand through the 2019/20 year. This estimate is based on USDA’s import forecast for China from May 2018, and trend forecasts using earlier USDA baseline forecasts as a guide. (Source: USDA, May Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade)

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