America’s agricultural land base is shifting under two main forces: changing land use and changing land ownership. A new analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) underscores that the core issue is not simply “how many acres exist,” but whether productive ground remains accessible and affordable for farmers and ranchers. Drawing on decades of data from USDA’s National Resources Inventory, the study tracks how cropland, pastureland, rangeland, forestland, Conservation Reserve Program acres, and developed land have evolved since 1982, providing a detailed picture of where agricultural acres are being converted, reclassified, or retained within the broader rural land base. I encourage everyone to read the full study, “Ground Shift: What’s Reshaping America’s Agricultural Land Base,” available HERE. We have summarized some of the highlights below.
Big Picture Of Land Use Change – Since 1982, cropland, pastureland, and rangeland have all declined while developed land has increased by about +48 million acres (+66%), roughly the size of Nebraska. Developed land now accounts for over 6% of the National Resources Inventory (NRI) study area. Forestland, other rural land, and land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have increased, underscoring that land is moving among multiple rural categories rather than simply disappearing. However, between 1982 and 2022, cropland fell by -55.7 million acres (-13%), rangeland by -16.3 million acres (-4%), and pastureland by 5.7 million acres (about -4%), while developed land grew from 72.6 to 120.2 million acres. Study author, AFBF Economist Daniel Munch, notes that the NRI focuses on non‑federal lands in the contiguous states and a few territories, so its totals are best viewed as a window into land-cover and land-use change across the core agricultural footprint rather than a complete “land in farms” measure for all 50 states.
Development Pressure Versus Rural Reallocation – Development is the most permanent form of land-use change in the NRI, and about 40% of all developed land in the study area was added in the last four decades. Large urban and built‑up areas drove most of this growth, nearly doubling from 46.5 million acres in 1982 to 90.5 million acres in 2022, while small built‑up areas grew more modestly and transportation corridors stayed roughly flat near 22 million acres. The pace of conversion has slowed from a peak of 10.8 million newly developed acres in 1992–1997 to roughly 3–3.4 million acres in each of the last two five‑year periods, but millions of rural acres still move into built uses every five years. Notably, new development does not draw only from cropland. Over the full period studied, forestland contributed the largest share of newly developed acres, followed by cropland, pastureland, and rangeland.
Cropland Movement Within The Rural Base – Recent data show cropland is often shifting among rural uses rather than being permanently lost. From 2017 to 2022, of 365 million acres classified as cropland, 357.3 million remained cropland, while 5.65 million acres moved into pastureland and only about 687,000 acres transitioned into developed land—roughly the size of Rhode Island. Cropland also gained acres, including 4.15 million from pastureland and 2.11 million from CRP, indicating a significant two‑way flow between crop and pasture uses plus some return from conservation. AFBF’s Munch notes that CRP category in the NRI primarily captures general signup acres and does not fully align with total CRP enrollment, but it does help track how environmentally sensitive land moves in and out of production over time.
Ownership, Rented Land, and Succession – Land access is increasingly shaped by who owns and rents the ground. In 2022, about 39% of U.S. agricultural land was rented, a long‑standing share that is especially important for larger operations and for farmers expanding through leases rather than outright purchase. In 2024, more than 2 million landowners rented out 347.8 million acres. Cropland represented 59% of those acres, and non‑operating landlords controlled 276.1 million acres—nearly four out of every five rented acres. Among non‑operating landlords, privately owned land accounted for 104.8 million rented acres, while trusts and family legal entities together held about 146.6 million acres, placing many access decisions outside the day‑to‑day control of operators. More than one‑third of non‑operating landlords are 75 or older and hold over 40% of rented acres in that group, yet less than 5% of owned farmland is expected to be sold or gifted over the next five years. Instead, larger shares are slated for trusts (10%) and wills (15%).
Local Competition And The Emerging Land Question – Though national totals may make pressures look small, farmers experience land competition locally, where a single solar project, data center, subdivision, or outside investment can materially affect land, water, power, and infrastructure availability in a county or irrigation district. Solar facilities and data centers can offer tax base and investment while competing directly for land and utilities. Additionally, foreign ownership, while a small national share, has recently increased partly through renewable energy‑linked acquisitions, all interacting with high land values to raise the opportunity cost of keeping acres in production.
The study concludes the U.S. is not facing an immediate “farmland cliff,” but the long‑term challenge is maintaining an agricultural land base that stays workable and accessible as development, energy projects, data centers, high land values, and generational ownership transitions intensify competition for the same ground. For many farmers operating largely on rented land, continued access will depend on decisions made by landlords, heirs, and entities beyond the farm gate, shaping who can enter, expand, and keep working America’s agricultural land base.
