This week’s FarmCon Conversations starts with a FARMCON update, then corn, soybeans, wheat, but the better discussion is really about how Kevin thinks through risk, markets, business, and change.
In this episode:
18:00 – Why Kevin believes producers should focus less on being right about the final yield and more on being right about how the market trades USDA’s number.
29:00 – How Kevin is thinking about corn’s wide trading range, with buyers watching the lower end and producers looking to reduce risk toward the upper end.
32:00 – Why Kevin is trading small, using options, and trying not to manage the “flip-flop” in a market that can move hard both directions.
36:00 – How soybeans are trading the gap between USDA’s 53 bpa yield and private estimates that may already be moving lower.
40:00 – Why Kevin thinks domestic soybean crush could become a bigger story this fall, especially if China adds fresh buying interest.
46:00 – Why Kevin is bullish wheat, but sees the story as more about Black Sea logistics, execution risk, and supply being out of position than a simple production shortage.
51:00 – Why Kevin is watching farmland values, subsidies, lending, and government support as potential long-term risks inside agriculture.
1:03:00 – Why Kevin questions whether farmland has already seen a major expansion in the buyer pool from funds, solar, data centers, and outside capital.
1:11:00 – How Kevin is positioning his investment accounts around AI, the Fed, ag stocks, gold, cash, and potential market pullbacks.
1:17:00 – Why Kevin pushes back against constant doom-and-gloom thinking around debt, deficits, and the economy.
1:25:00 – What Kevin tells young people about careers, flexibility, opportunity, and why chasing money alone can lead to bad decisions.
Key quotes from Kevin:
“As long as the USDA is in business, I think that’s what the world’s gonna trade off of.”
“You can be as right as the day is long on the yield, but if you’re wrong the market and wrong where the USDA’s going with it, you’re just gonna get annihilated.”
“I don’t wanna manage the flip-flop.”
“I trade small here because with the volatility where it is, I don’t want to get knocked out.”
“The key is get in early and leave early.”
“Whoever can hold their breath the longest has got the best chance to survive.”
“Learn, unlearn, relearn.”
“Be the best that you can possibly be at whatever you pick to be.”
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