The population in rural America, aka “nonmetro” areas, continues to make gains, reversing a decade-long period of decline in the 2010s. According to a new analysis from the USDA’s Economic Research Service, the number of people living in nonmetro counties increased by +134,540 (+0.29%) between 2023 and 2024. The recent growth stems entirely from migration, which has offset a population loss in nonmetro areas caused by more deaths than births.
Overall, 65% of nonmetro counties had positive net migration between the census count in 2020 and June 2024. Migration added an estimated +974,379 people to nonmetro populations, 69% of which were from domestic migration. International migration added an estimated +300,424 people to nonmetro populations. Between July 2021 and June 2024, overall net migration rates for nonmetro counties have been higher than at any point since 1997.
Gains from migration also continue to offset the decline in natural population change (difference between births and deaths). Falling birth rates and an aging population have steadily reduced the U.S. population growth from natural change in nonmetro counties over time. According to ERS, each year since 2017, nonmetro areas have recorded more deaths than births (natural decrease). Between 2020 and 2024, a natural decrease reduced the nonmetro population by -563,550 people.
Natural population decrease is now widespread across rural America, with 1,492 nonmetro counties (76%) seeing a natural decrease between July 2023 and June 2024. ERS also expects the natural decrease to continue as the number of older people increases and the number of younger people declines.
In 2023, 21% of the U.S. nonmetro population was over age 65, compared to 17% of the metro population. Nonmetro areas also account for a higher number of “older-age” counties, or those where at least 20% of the population is over 65. In 2000, only 292 counties (15% of nonmetro counties) had reached this threshold. By 2023, however, 66% of nonmetro counties qualified as older age, spreading across all regions of the country.
The “greying” of rural America has a direct impact on agriculture, an issue that is drawing more attention from lawmakers. Members of both parties addressed the topic in a recent Congressional hearing. Stakeholders and lawmakers point to issues such as lack of access to broadband and child and health care as reasons why young families aren’t moving back to the farms or moving away, as well as the increased cost of farming as a reason why younger generations have been abandoning these communities. The full ERS report is available HERE.
