The rapid rise of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic and Wegovy is triggering seismic shifts across the food and agriculture sectors, upending decades of consumption patterns and forcing producers to rethink everything from crop selection to product formulation. These appetite-suppressing drugs, originally developed for diabetes management, are now used by millions for weight loss, and their biological impact on eating habits is rewriting the rules of food demand.
GLP-1 drugs work by mimicking gut hormones that regulate hunger, leading users to consume 20 to 30% fewer calories on average. This biological shift has already translated into measurable economic impacts. Analysts project -$12 billion in lost snack food sales over the next decade. There is a -6% average reduction in annual grocery spending per household, which rises to -$690 for high-income families, and Australian users have reported a -31% drop in monthly food expenditures. The changes are most pronounced in categories like snacks, which are down over -11%, baked goods, which are down nearly -10%, and alcohol, which has dropped over -8%. At the same time, protein-rich dairy products like Greek yogurt and cottage cheese are gaining traction, with Greek yogurt sales up +40% and cottage cheese up +13%. Unlike past diet trends, these shifts are driven by physiological changes rather than willpower, making them more likely to persist as long as patients continue medication.
Dairy farmers face some of the most urgent challenges. With GLP-1 users cutting cheese and butter spending by -5% to -7%, the industry’s decades-long focus on milkfat is colliding with new protein priorities. Traditionally, the value of milk components has centered on fat content, with breeds like Jersey cows prized for their high fat yields. In the GLP-1 era, however, the focus is shifting to protein, with Holsteins and other breeds offering a better balance. For every one percent shift in demand, the price risk is estimated at a $0.15 per hundredweight loss for fat and a $0.12 per hundredweight gain for protein. Row crop producers are also adjusting to these new realities. Purdue researchers predict increased demand for leafy greens, nuts, and fresh vegetables, potentially shortening supply chains as production moves closer to urban markets. Meanwhile, wheat and corn growers face headwinds from reduced ultra-processed food demand, though animal feed markets could cushion the blow.
Major consumer packaged goods companies are racing to reformulate products and packaging. Nestlé has launched Vital Pursuit meals with GLP-1-friendly labels and smaller servings. Conagra has added protein fortification to 28 Healthy Choice products. Many firms are quietly reducing salt and artificial additives without marketing claims, fearing taste backlash if changes are too obvious. Restaurants and retailers are equally affected. Walmart reports smaller basket sizes among GLP-1 users, while fast-food chains are testing protein-boosted menus. Packaging firms face dual pressures, with surging demand for injectable drug delivery systems and declining needs for snack food wrappers.
Morgan Stanley predicts obesity drugs will become a $105 billion global market by 2030, some skeptics argue food demand could rebound if users discontinue medications. Permanent change advocates point to projections that 7% to 15% of the U.S. population will use GLP-1s by 2035, and 43% of users believe the impacts will be systemic and long-term. They also note the biological mechanisms that resist “diet fatigue.” On the other hand, cautionary voices highlight that 90% of consumers still prioritize taste over health, insurance coverage gaps are limiting adoption, and there are historical parallels to low-carb and gluten-free fads that eventually faded.
Forward-thinking players are taking decisive action. Dairy producers are launching genetic rebalancing programs to boost protein yields. Row crop farmers are contracting for specialty soybeans and pulse crops. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are acquiring plant-based protein startups. Retailers are investing in AI-driven inventory systems to track real-time demand shifts. As Purdue agricultural economist Dr. Jayson Lusk notes, this isn’t about chasing trends; it’s about building resilience across the value chain. The companies that will thrive are those using data to anticipate both medical and consumer revolutions.
The GLP-1 effect underscores a fundamental truth: when human biology changes, agriculture and food systems must evolve or risk obsolescence. While the full impact will unfold over the years, the message to producers is clear: adaptability is no longer optional. From farm fields to grocery aisles, the race to align with medicine’s new appetite algebra has begun.
I like to think of it like this… back in the day, as producers, we essentially grew whatever we wanted, and the consumers got to pick from what we grew. In today’s new world, the consumer and the CPGs are going to select and, in many cases, dictate what we can grow. We are going to have to decide if we are going to be industrial producers (growing fuel and industrial-related crops) or food and feed producers. The decision isn’t easy, but its going to be necessary as we move forward. (Source: Farmdocdaily, womeninag, news.okstate.edu , agribusiness.purdue)
