Rice is by far the most widely consumed staple food in Japan. Somewhere along the way, however, the country has fallen into a steep supply deficit and prices for the important staple have doubled since last summer. The government has released emergency reserves but hardly any of the supplies have actually landed on grocery store shelves, a mystery that leaders are struggling to explain.
Japan’s rice crisis is rooted in a poor rice harvest in 2023, according to Utsunomiya University agricultural economist Masayuki Ogawa. The agriculture ministry in both 2023 and 2024 then overestimated supply and underestimated demand.
The supply shortage first became evident to Japanese consumers last summer after the government released an advisory that a “megaquake” off the country’s southern coast could cause strong shaking and large tsunamis. The notice was issued after a magnitude-7.1 earthquake shook southern Japan.
While the notice was meant to let people know that a cataclysmic event is a possibility at some point in the future, many took it as a warning that a massive earthquake was imminent. Panicked Japanese consumers rushed to prepare for disaster, including stockpiling loads of rice.
Leading up to this emergency rice buying binge, Japanese consumers had steadily been increasing their rice consumption due to rising prices for bread and noodles. Prices for those staples were on the rise with wheat prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Rice consumption also increased with a return of dining out and a rush of tourists following the pandemic.
The Japanese government began releasing 210,000 metric tons of emergency rice reserves in March, with plans to release another 300,000 metric tons through July. However, of the rice released so far, only about 10% has reportedly reached distributors. The government says this is due to a shortage of delivery vehicles and the time needed to prepare the grain for sale.
As for imports, Japan imports about 770,000 metric tons of rice tariff free every year, with approximately half typically coming from the U.S. Above that quota, Japan imposes a tariff of around $2.30 per kilogram, which works out to a rate of anywhere from around 225% to 300%, depending on market prices.
Rice imports are reportedly part of current U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. Japan faces a “reciprocal” tariff as high as 24% if it isn’t able to negotiate it down, and its automobile and metals industries, two of its key sectors, are being tariffed at an additional 25% each. The Trump administration is pushing Japan to import more U.S. ag products, including rice.
Japanese consumers have traditionally been skeptical of imported rice due to perceived taste and quality differences. Sky-high prices may be changing those attitudes, though. Many Japanese restaurants reportedly started transitioning to U.S. rice last year and customers seem to be unaware of any difference. Restaurant owners note that even though the cost of the California rice being imported has doubled, it’s still cheaper than domestic supplies.
Japan’s government has been skeptical of opening its rice market and very keen to protect domestic producers. However, Japan’s production capacity has dwindled. The number of rice-farming households has shrunk from about 4.66 million in 1970 to roughly 700,000 in 2020, according to The Japan Times.
Additionally, a majority of Japan’s farmers are part-time farmers who work small plots of land. Compounding the crisis, a record number of farmers went bankrupt or closed their farms in 2024, with more than 60% of them being in their 70s or older, according to Teikoku Data Bank.
Consumer advocates on Japan favor opening the country’s rice market and hope tariff negotiations with the U.S. will finally usher in what they see as long overdue reforms. Economist Tatsuo Hatta, president of the Asia Growth Research Institute says if Japan is able to use rice imports as a bargaining chip to lower American tariffs on its much bigger automobile industry, “both countries will benefit: the U.S. can purchase a cheap Japanese car, and Japan can purchase cheap rice from the United States.”
