Canadian wheat farmers are feeling fairly optimistic about 2025/26 wheat crop prospects as timely rains continue to boost soil moisture in many areas. With farmers projected to increase planted acres by around +2.6%, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is forecasting a +2% increase in production. The USDA is estimating Canada’s new-crop wheat production will total 36.0 MMTs vs. 34.96 MMTs last year vs. 32.95 MMTs harvested in 2023.
Soil moisture in the Canadian prairie region is still being closely monitored, but it seems to be improved this year compared to the past three years, particularly in Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, where farmers were still battling extreme dryness. The most recent Canadian Drought Monitor (as of March 31) shows only 32% of the Prairies region was classified as “Abnormally Dry” or “Moderate” to “Severe Drought” compared to 95% from the same time in 2024.
Improved conditions are expected to boost wheat acres to around 27.4 million, with most of the gains coming from “spring wheat” (+477,000 acres) while “winter wheat” area increases just over +222,000 acres. Prairie farmers will generally begin planting wheat in early to mid-May, and mid-April to the first week of May in the southern regions, according to USDA.
According to Canada’s Wheat Growers Association, seeding has been well underway across much of the Prairies. CWGA also noted in its most recent update that many growers continue to hold some old-crop inventory as blending insurance after facing lower crop yields in previous years, leading to subdued market activity.
Around 23% of Canada’s wheat area is anticipated to be durum, in-line with the 5-year average. That share has remained stable between 19% and 26% for the last ten years, depending on prices, notes FAS. Durum is primarily grown in southern Saskatchewan, where soil and climate are typically most suitable.
Canada’s wheat export outlook is somewhat complicated by U.S. tariffs, though FAS says it expects any wheat redirected from the U.S. will find a home. According to FAS contacts, most Canadian exporters are opting not to sell to the United States on new business, due to the current market uncertainty and potential tariffs. In 2023/24, the U.S. was the fifth largest importer of Canadian non-durum wheat and the fourth largest importer of Canadian durum wheat.
Despite potential lost business with the U.S., the USDA pegs Canada’s 2025/26 wheat exports at 27.0 MMTs, essentially the same as last year, and slightly higher than in 2023. Keep in mind, the US is only forecast to export 21.77 MMTs. Bottom line, the trade is looking for Canada to produce a good wheat crop and continue to be the worlds third largest wheat exporter behind only Russia and European Union. (Sources: USDA, Platts, Statistics Canada, CWGA)
