Spring 2025 has already thrown some major curveballs across the country with record warmth in March, volatile storm systems in April, and persistent drought signals in some key agricultural regions. For farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness operators, the stakes are incredibly high, and as you know, timing is everything. Most weather models, even the best ones like the American GFS Model and the European model, can’t see more than 7–10 days out with meaningful accuracy. Seasonal outlooks are often broad generalizations and quote warmer than usual or drier than average etc. All the while, your decisions about planting, logistics, input purchases, and market strategy must happen weeks or months ahead, not days.
Weather 20/20’s “Lezak Recurring Cycle” (LRC) model has proven what most thought impossible. There is an underlying order in what appears to be chaotic weather. It’s why Weather 20/20 was ranked #1 in hurricane season forecasting by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center for multiple consecutive years, and it’s why more ag businesses are adopting LRC-based insights into their operations.
Late Spring and Early Summer Weather: Based on the current LRC model, here’s what producers should be aware of heading into late spring and early summer. Conditions for drought stress in areas of the western Plains and parts of the Midwest are still vulnerable to episodic drought intensification, especially where storms have missed early. Selected River basins, especially in the upper Midwest, are at higher-than-average risk for localized flooding if projected storm windows line up. And with regards to severe weather hotspots, the model indicates continued elevated risk for damaging wind and hail outbreaks, particularly in May and early June, with some regions at 90%+ probability for strongest setups.
As many of you are aware, we’ve been forecasting the shrinking of the drought for months, and I’m not at all surprised that the process is taking time. While improvement is underway, several risks remain on the radar. Atmospheric blocking patterns could interrupt rainfall for two- to three-week stretches, particularly in May or June, potentially stressing early crops. As summer sets in, heat waves remain a threat, especially if high-pressure ridging builds. And while the spring version of the LRC has brought timely moisture, the summer version of the pattern may shift storm tracks and shut off rain in some key zones during July or August. Timing and regional impacts will be critical to watch.
If you take a couple of moments to study the slides in the current segment of the cycle pattern graphic below, you will begin to see the order in chaos emerge. What might look random at first is actually the exact opposite. This year’s LRC cycle is roughly six weeks long, and it’s repeating again and again, with remarkable consistency.
By monitoring Weather 20/20 forecasts, you can stay ahead of the pack and adjust irrigation, know when to make input applications, and better staff and utilize your resources, all around LRC-based timing. Every year has its unique extremes, and this year we have been seeing the shrinking of drought conditions over most of the agricultural regions of the United States. The extremes are really the new normal; the old playbooks aren’t good enough anymore. This spring and summer, bet on the pattern, not the uncertainty. To learn more, and to get specific daily forecasts for your particular location, Click HERE.
