Soybean growers in Argentina are expected to pull back on planting this year to the tune of nearly -2.5 million acres, according to the latest update from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Buenos Aires. In it’s “Oilseeds and Products Annual,” FAS says the pullback is due to growers reverting back to traditional corn rotations following a soy-heavy year driven by pest concerns. The full report is available HERE. Below are some of the highlights.
Production – Argentine farmers this year expanded soybean acreage by a record amount and are on track to harvest a sizable crop despite some weather setbacks. Argentine farmers swung to soybeans in 24/25 after an infestation of leafhoppers devastated corn crops the previous year. FAS estimates Argentina’s soybean area in 24/25 at 43.2 million acres (1.5 million hectares), slightly higher than USDA’s official estimate of 42.7 million and up from 40.8 in 23/24. Still, FAS kept its production estimate unchanged at 49 MMT, matching the USDA’s official estimate. With much less disease pressure this year, FAS says Argentine farmers are looking to return to typical corn rotations in 25/26. FAS expects first or early planted soybeans will likely see the biggest acreage reduction, though this will be partially offset by an expected increase in second (late) soybean plantings. The agency post forecasts 25/26 soybean acres will fall to 40.8 million. Still, FAS is forecasting a slight gain in production to 49.5 MMT, up about 500,000 metric tons from the current estimate for 24/25 production.
Crush – Argentina’s soybean industry has positioned itself to play an outsized role in the soybean oil and meal markets. Crushed products are exported from ports in and around Rosario (Santa Fe Province), where traders have their own terminals to store, crush, and export soy products. This is the avenue through which most of the country’s soybeans (typically 85%) reach the global market. FAS forecasts 24/25 soybean crush 41.5 MMT, slightly lower than USDA’s official estimate of 42 MMT. In 25/26, FAS sees crush rising to 42 MMT. The agency post notes that the Argentine crushing sector is expected to operate above 60% of operational capacity in MY2025/26, marking a moderate recovery from previous years.
Imports – Argentine crushers generally try to secure supplies two to three months in advance. However, FAS notes that many of the country’s soybean growers continue to delay sales in anticipation of more favorable exchange rates, government policy shifts, or stronger international prices. To maintain crush volumes, Argentine processors are expected to continue importing soybeans, primarily from Paraguay. USDA officially pegs Argentina’s 24/5 imports at 6 MMT, but FAS is slightly lower at 4.9 MMT. FAS sees imports falling in 25/26 to 5.8 MMT.
Exports – Argentina’s whole soybean exports are not very large but what does get shipped out mostly goes to China. FAS estimates soybean exports in 24/25 at 4.7 MMT, higher than USDA’s official estimate of 4.5 MMT. FAS forecasts whole bean exports to rise to 5.5 MMT in 25/26. FAS adds that although the general trend of importing beans for crush and re-exporting derivative products will continue, any significant shifts in global trade dynamics, such as deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations, could alter sourcing and marketing patterns. Argentina may stand to benefit by filling the supply gap if U.S. soybeans to China decline significantly, which would further increase the country’s soybean exports. FAS did not provide estimates for Argentine soybean oil and meal exports.
