Ongoing cattle herd contraction and the continued struggles of the poultry industry – particularly egg producers – against bird flu are two prominent themes set to impact the livestock industry in 2025, according to USDA’s Agricultural Outlook for Livestock and Poultry. One positive takeaway is an expected decline in feed prices, continuing the trend that began in 2023. Below are more highlights from the USDA’s outlook report:
Cattle and Beef: USDA highlights that the U.S. cattle inventory contracted for a sixth year in 2024, with the estimated number of cattle and calves ending the year at 86.7 million head. The good news is that the -1% decline from 2023 marks a slowdown from previous years. However, the inventory is also the lowest level of the national herd since 1951. The beef cow herd was estimated nearly -1% lower than the previous year at 27.9 million head, the lowest since 1961.
- Notably, the calf crop of 33.5 million head was only slightly lower than 2023 (33.6 million). USDA notes the calf crop was relatively large given the fewer number of cows estimated in 2024, suggesting better utilization of the breeding stock and survival rate for calves during 2024. Still, herd expansion is not expected in 2025. USDA points to the number of replacement heifers for the beef herd that shrank -1% in 2024, as strong feeder prices incentivized producers to market their heifers last year. It will likely take more than the upcoming year for producers to build the breeding herd to the point where herd expansion is realized.
- USDA says the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Southern Mexico could lead to fewer cattle imports that further tighten the U.S. feeder cattle market. While U.S. imports from Mexico have resumed, new veterinary protocols could prevent volumes from reaching 2024 levels. Overall beef imports in 2025 are forecast to increase +3% to 4.77 billion pounds. Beef exports in 2025 are forecast to decrease 7 percent, largely on tighter domestic beef supplies constraining export availability.
- The 5-area steer price for 2025 is forecast to average $201 per cwt, higher than the 2024 average of $187.12. USDA notes that steer prices in early 2025 eclipsed the $200 per cwt mark for the first time. Feeder cattle prices for 750-800 pound calves in 2025 are forecast to average $274 per cwt, about +9% higher than 2024. Commercial beef production in 2025 is forecast to decrease nearly -2%to 26.6 billion pounds.
Hogs and Pork: After poor returns during much of 2023, the hog sector saw improved profitability in 2024 on lower feed costs and higher pork prices for much of the year. USDA says pork production increased +2% to 27.8 billion pounds last year, while commercial hog slaughter was +1% higher. Larger pig crops were the main driver of higher slaughter levels. The growth in the pig crop came despite a decline in the breeding herd. In 2025, commercial pork production is forecast to increase +3% to 28.5 billion pounds.
- Pork exports in 2024 enjoyed a +4% boost, despite significant declines in shipments to Japan (-2%) and China (-9%). Those declines were more than offset by growth in other key markets, including a +4% increase in shipments to Mexico and a +12% increase to South Korea. For 2025, imports are forecast to increase 2% to 1.17 billion pounds. National base 51-52% lean hog prices, live equivalent are forecast to average $65 per cwt in 2025, a +3% increase from the 2024 average of $61.56 per cwt.
Broiler Meat: Broiler meat production in 2024 was +1% higher at 46.5 billion pounds. For 2025, broiler meat production is forecast to increase +1% to 47.1 billion pounds on lower feed costs, higher prices for competing meats, and steadily increasing average live bird weights. U.S. broiler meat exports for 2025 are forecast to decrease -2% to 6.61 billion pounds. This would follow a -7% decline seen in 2024 exports. Despite higher supplies, U.S. exports continued to face strong price competition from other major exporters, including the world’s largest broiler meat exporter, Brazil. The National composite wholesale broiler price is forecast to average $1.32 per pound in 2025, up +2% from last year.
Eggs: Total U.S. egg production in 2025 is expected to be 8.96 billion dozen, nearly a -1% decline from 2024. This outlook is based on the assumption of no additional animal disease outbreaks from what was reported at the time of the WASDE release on February 11, 2025. The egg sector was dealt a particularly impactful blow from October 2024 through February 205, with some 44 million commercial table egg layers culled due to HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza, aka “bird flu”). Total egg production is not expected to increase relative to the previous year until the second half of 2025.
- In 2024, egg and egg product exports declined -6% to 234 million dozen, as high prices and tight supplies constrained exports for both shell eggs and egg products. USDA forecasts the decline in exports will steepen to -11% in 2025. The domestic shortage saw U.S. egg imports climb +8% in 2024 and forecast to climb another +7% in 2025 to 32 million dozen. For 2025, New York wholesale egg prices are forecast to average $4.44 per dozen, compared with the 2024 average of $3.03.
