Results of the National Cotton Council’s 44th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey show that U.S. cotton producers plan to plant 9.6 million acres this spring, which would mark a -14.5% decline from 2024. Upland cotton intentions are 9.4 million acres, down -14.4% from 2024, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 158,000 acres represent a -23.5% decline.
The NCC questionnaire, mailed in January to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2024 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through the end of January.
Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, notes, “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. As compared to average futures prices during the first quarter of 2024, all commodity prices were lower during the survey period, but cotton had the largest decline. As a result, the price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans were lower than in 2024. Based on historical price relationships, this would generally suggest a decline in cotton acreage.”
Break-even prices for last year’s cotton is estimated at around 70-80 cents per pound. The MAR25 Cotton futures contract in January was trading in the high 60s. USDA’s 2024/25 season average upland farm price forecast is 66 cents per pound.
Changes to cotton planting intentions do vary widely. For instance, Southeast respondents indicate a -19.3% decline in cotton acreage. Within the region, acreage declines range from -8.8% in Virginia to a decline of nearly -27% in North Carolina. Growers in only two Cotton Belt states indicated an increase in cotton acres – Kansas and New Mexico. The full report is HERE. Other intended acreage changes include:
Southeast respondents indicate a -19.3 percent decline in cotton acreage to 1.9 million acres.The survey responses indicate a decrease of -10.5% in Alabama, -17% in Florida, and -15% in South Carolina. It’s worth noting that Georgia growers expect to reduce acreage by -21.5% to 864 thousand acres. If realized, this would represent the lowest level of Georgia cotton acreage since 1993. According to the survey responses from Southeast growers, the expected decline in cotton acres is due to an increase in corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, and peanuts.
Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.8 million acres, a decline of -8.2% from the previous year. This includes a -7% decline in Arkansa, a -12.7% decline in Louisiana, -9% declines each in Mississippi and Missouri, and a -6.1% decline in Tennessee. Survey responses suggest an increase in corn, peanuts, and other crops. Growers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri also expect to plant fewer soybeans, while Tennessee growers indicated an increase in soybean acreage.
Growers in the Southwest intend to plant -14.5% less cotton. Kansas growers stand out as one of only two states expected to increase upland cotton acres with farmers signaling they will plant +12.5% more cotton at the expense of wheat and soybeans. Cotton growers in other Southwest states intend to cut acreage, including a decline of -5% in Oklahoma and -15.8% in Texas. South Texas growers expect to plant more sorghum and other crops. In the Blacklands, growers intend to plant more corn, wheat and sorghum. West Texas growers reported an increase in wheat, sorghum, corn, peanuts, and other crops.
In the West, upland cotton acreage is expected to decline by -12.3%. Acreage is expected to decline by in Arizona by -18.8% and in California by -40.8%. In New Mexico, the only other state besides Kansas increasing upland cotton acreage, growers intend to plant +17.3% more upland cotton in 2025. According to the survey responses, the expected decline in upland cotton acres in the West is due to an increase in corn, wheat, and other crops.
Extra-long staple (ELS) acreage is expected to decline by -23.5% in 2025. Arizona growers expect to plant +2.6% more ELS cotton, while California growers expect to plant -27.6% less ELS cotton. Water availability is impacting cotton acreage decisions in 2025. New Mexico ELS cotton acreage is expected to decline by -20.0%, while Texas growers expect to plant -18.2% less ELS cotton.
