The Van Trump Report

U.S. Egg Shortage May Get Worse Before Improving

America’s egg shortage is no joke. Courtesy of the ongoing bird flu outbreak, grocery stores across the country are scrambling to keep shelves stocked, while prices are as high as they’ve ever been. The situation is, unfortunately, beyond anyone’s control and likely to get worse before it gets better, according to industry experts.

Bird flu has absolutely ravaged U.S. poultry over the past year, with losses intensifying toward the end of 2024. In November and December alone, 17.2 million layer hens were lost to the virus, accounting for about half of total poultry birds killed by bird flu in 2024. The surge has continued into 2025, according to USDA, with at least five outbreaks in five states resulting in the loss of -5.6 million birds in just the first two weeks of January.

The latest Consumer Price Index showed egg prices in December were up nearly +37% versus a year ago, while food prices overall climbed just +2.5%. The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most people that have been to a grocery store lately would probably agree that prices are a lot higher than that now.

According to Karyn Rispoli, managing editor for eggs in the Americas for price-reporting service Expana, egg prices are climbing to new records daily. She predicts a dozen “Grade A Large” eggs will soon be north of $7 in the Southeast and South Central U.S., and around $6.95 per dozen in the Midwest. In Missouri, one store brand of “Grade A Large” eggs is already $6.00 a dozen. Out in California, which has been particularly hard hit by the virus, the cheapest store brand prices are closer to $8.00 a dozen.  

USDA does see some recovery in U.S. layer and egg supplies in 2025 but predicts it will be slow going.  As of December 1, 2024, the U.S. table egg layer inventory was 310.9 million birds. This was down -2.8% year over year and about -17 million birds below the 5-year average. USDA estimates total 2025 table egg production of 7,820 million dozen, which would be an increase of +1.2% from the projected 2024 total (7,728 million dozen) but still -3.9% fewer table eggs than were produced in 2021, the year before the current series of HPAI outbreaks began.

USDA is also not optimistic about lower prices in 2025. The daily New York wholesale price for large eggs averaged 491.95 cents per dozen in December. This is up about +69 cents from November and up +288 cents from last December. The daily New York midpoint price was 609 cents per dozen on Wednesday, January 8th, the last observation before the January WASDE was published. For 2025, USDA in the January WASDE lifted its projection for average egg prices by 64 cents to 294 cents per dozen, a decrease of only about -9 cents from the 2024 average price. (Sources: USDA, Axios, Reuters)

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