There has been a lot of talk that Argentina’s crops are at risk from recent hot and dry weather. Soybeans, especially, are said to be facing yield declines as dry conditions look to continue through at least mid-January. However, the soybean crop is currently in good condition and some feel recent production forecasts don’t fully reflect the fading prospects.
USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) post in Buenos Aires released its most recent update on Argentina’s soybean crop on January 6. They are maintaining a forecast of 52 million metric tons (MMT), the same as USDA’s official estimate. FAS says its forecast is driven by soybeans gaining acreage over corn, as well as favorable weather conditions the past several months. (The Rosario Board of Trade updated its forecast for Argentina’s soybean crop on January 8 to ?? MMT from a previous forecast of between 53 and 53.5 MMT. )
FAS estimates Argentina’s 2024-25 soybean acres at nearly 44 million (17.8 million hectares), up from just over 41 million acres (16.5 million hectares) in 2023-24. Last year’s crop delivered 48.2 million metric tons of soybeans, up from just 25 million in 2022-23, which was devastated by drought.
As for weather, November delivered rainfall that was about +30% above average. However, the rain dried up in December with totals some -79% below normal. Meteorologists say this is in line with the presence of La Niña, the “cool” phase of the so-called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. La Niña, which typically brings dryness to Argentina, was blamed for the country’s drought-stricken soybean crop during the 2022-23 season.
“Over spring and the first days of summer, La Niña has begun to make itself felt, producing water deficits across a large part of the farming region,” Eduardo Sierra, a climatologist with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wrote in a recent report. Yet the crop was still estimated to be in mostly “good-to-excellent” condition (53%), with only 4% rated “poor.”
Argentina’s soybean crop is harvested in the second quarter and is highly dependent on January and February rainfall. Right now, the weather forecast is not promising, with long-term outlooks predicting lower-than-average rainfall through March. Soil moisture reserves are said to range from “scarce to drought in half of the core region,” according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Bottom line, January rains could make or break Argentina’s soybean crop. Stay tuned! (Sources: USDA FAS, Reuters, DTN)
