USDA’s latest update to its 2024 farm income forecast provides a slightly better outlook than its previous estimate, though not by much. Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is pegged at $140.7 billion in 2024, up from $140.0 billion forecast in September. The new forecast represents a -4.1% decline from 2023 net farm income of $146.7 billion and a more than -22% decline from the record high of $181.9 billion reached in 2022.
In inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decrease by -$9.5 billion (-6.3%) from 2023 to 2024. Net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by -$5.7 billion (-3.5%) from 2023 to 2024. If realized, both measures in 2024 would remain above their 2004–23 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars). The full report is available HERE. Below are some of the highlights:
- Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by -$25.0 billion (-9.2%) from 2023 levels to $246.2 billion following lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Corn receipts are expected to fall by -$16.6 billion (-20.8%), as lower forecasted prices should outweigh higher quantities sold in 2024. Lower prices in 2024 should also outweigh growth in quantities sold for soybean receipts, which are forecast to decrease by -$6.9 billion (-12.3%).
- Wheat receipts are forecast to decrease -$0.8 billion (-7.0%), while cotton receipts fall -$1.9 billion (-26.9%). Rice receipts are projected to increase by +$0.2 billion (+4.5%), behind rising quantities sold.
- Total animal/animal product receipts are projected to increase by $21.0 billion (8.4 percent) to $270.6 billion in 2024. Receipts for cattle/calves, eggs, milk, broilers, and hogs are all forecast to rise relative to 2023.
- Cash receipts from cattle and calves are expected to increase +$7.3 billion (+7.2%), primarily due to higher prices. Growth in prices and quantities sold are likely to lead to an increase of +$1.5 billion (+5.7%) in hog receipts during the year.
- Cash receipts for chicken eggs are projected to increase +$7.0 billion (+39.4 %), due to rising prices in 2024. Rising prices and quantities sold are expected to drive broiler receipts +$2.5 billion (+5.9%) higher during the year. However, turkey receipts are forecast to drop -$2.8 billion (-43.3%) in 2024, following expected lower prices and quantities sold.
- Milk receipts are expected to increase +$5.3 billion (+11.5%) in 2024, mainly due to higher prices.
- Total production expenses, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to decrease by -$8.0 billion (-1.7%) from 2023 to $453.9 billion in 2024. Spending on feed is expected to see the largest decline in 2024 while livestock/poultry purchases are expected to see the largest dollar increase relative to 2023.
- Direct Government farm payments are forecast at $10.6 billion in 2024, a -$1.7 billion (-13.6%) decrease from 2023. Direct Government farm payments include Federal farm program payments paid directly to farmers and ranchers but exclude USDA loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC). The forecast decline is largely because of lower Dairy Margin Coverage Program payments and supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers in 2024 compared with 2023.
- Farm sector equity is expected to increase by +5.2% ($181.9 billion) from 2023 to $3.68 trillion in 2024 in nominal terms. Farm sector assets are forecast to increase +5.1% ($205.4 billion) to $4.22 trillion in 2024 following an expected increase in the value of farm real estate assets.
- Farm sector debt is forecast to increase +4.5%t ($23.5 billion) to $542.5 billion in 2024. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to improve modestly from 12.93% in 2023 to 12.86% in 2024, while working capital is forecast to fall -6.9% relative to 2023.
