Argentina’s corn production is expected to decrease sharply in the 2024/25 crop season; at least, that’s the early story we are hearing. Personally, I’m not entirely sold on the headlines, but time will tell. In case you haven’t heard, the Rosario Board of Trade estimates a -25% decrease in corn planted area, the largest relative drop in 17 years.
According to the Rosario exchange, Argentine farmers will plant just over 19 million acres (7.88 million hectares) of corn for 2024/25, a drop of about -6 million acres versus last year. Still, the exchange says total corn production could reach 50 to 51 million tons, compared to 50.5 MMT in 2023/24.
For what it’s worth, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) most recently pegged Argentina’s 2024/25 corn production at 48 MMT, which is -3 million lower than USDA’s official estimate of 51 MMT.
The Rosario Exchange notes that a large part of the corn area in the critical central belt, including the top producing state of Cordoba, was sown out of season due to dry conditions and the impact of corn stunt disease. Corn stunt disease, which is spread by the corn leaf hopper, led to significant crop losses and pushed some farmers away from the crop for this year.
As for Argentina’s 2024/25 corn exports, USDA’s FAS forecast a total of 35 MMT, versus USDA’s estimate of 36 MMT. Both are higher than 2023/24 estimated corn exports of 33 MMT and would market the highest corn exports for the country since 202-21.
The Rosario Exchange as well as USDA’s FAS expect the loss in corn area will primarily be covered by soybeans, which demand a significantly lower investment per acre due to lower seed cost and significantly less fertilizer use. The exchange estimates a nearly +10% increase in soybean planted area at 44.2 million acres, the highest in six years. The exchange pegs production at 53-53.5 MMT versus 50 MMT last season and USDA’s official estimate of 51 MMT for 2024/25. (Sources: Rosario Board of Trade, USDA, farmdoc daily)
