While some forecasts show chances for rainfall across a good portion of the country might be setting up, it may not be enough to set cattle producers up for herd expansion in 2025. The outlook is complicated by the fact that USDA cancelled its mid-year July Cattle Inventory Report, making it unclear how much rebuilding, if any, producers have been able to do this year.
The latest U.S. drought monitor shows that approximately 67% of the U.S. cattle inventory is within an area experiencing drought right now. That includes major production states like Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Iowa.
Likewise, pasture and range conditions in the most recent Crop Progress report showed just 19% of national pasture and rangeland in “good-to-excellent”condition. At the state level, 63% of Texas pastures are rated “poor-to-very poor” versus 11% “good-to-excellent.” In Kansas, 46% of pastures are rated “poor-to-very poor”, 63% in Oklahoma, and 47% in Iowa.
The dry conditions across some big cattle states has also led to historic wildfires that have damaged hundreds of thousands of acres of grazing land. Due to hazardous conditions created by the fires as well as increased demand, some of these areas have also struggled with feed shortages.
The January Cattle Inventory Report is the only official tally the USDA produced this year. Due to budget restraints, the agency dropped the July report, leaving it up to the industry to try to decipher the available data. University of Missouri’s Scott Brown has devised an approach to estimate the US cattle inventory based on various alternative data, including beef cow slaughter, heifers on feed, and historical trends.
The latest livestock slaughter data shows little change from last year. During the January to September period, heifers accounted for 31.7% of cattle slaughtered versus 31% in 2023, with the share for steers in the 2024 time period at 48.8% versus 47% in 2023. There is also little change in on feed numbers. The October 2024 Cattle on feed report showed 4,600 heifers on feedlots during the third quarter of 2024, down only slightly from 4,640 in 2023.
According to Scott, in years where the percentage of heifers on feed fell below 35%, beef cow inventory has historically increased. The October 1, 2024 Cattle on Feed report showed heifers accounted for nearly 40% of inventory, unchanged from 2023. Scott in July estimated that the U.S. cattle herd had shrunk -1.8% from the start of the year, after witnessing a roughly -2% decline in 2023.
Bottom line, the numbers don’t indicate that livestock producers have been able to make any headway in herd rebuilding and conditions on the ground currently aren’t very supportive for near-term efforts. Some industry insiders think herd expansion might be able to begin in earnest in 2025, though most expect it to be a very slow, years-long process. (Sources: Missouri Ruralist, Texas Farm Bureau, Feed Navigator)
