As the hurricane season advances, the precision of Weather 20/20’s predictions, deeply rooted in the science of our patent-pending Lezak Recurring Cycle methodology, becomes increasingly evident. This year, we are set to deliver the most accurate hurricane forecasts for the third consecutive year, distinguishing our approach from conventional forecasting methods. Even with the unexpected lack of activity in the tropics, Weather 20/20’s forecasts have closely mirrored actual storm activity. Our ability to accurately predict the below-average storm frequency this season wasn’t luck, it was the result of rigorous analysis, and the cyclical nature of the weather pattern captured by the LRC.
This distinction in forecasting is crucial not only for those directly affected by tropical weather but also for those of us in agriculture, where strategic decision-making depends significantly on reliable weather forecasts. The success of this season’s predictions across the Corn Belt serves as a testament to the LRC’s validity and its potential to transform how we prepare for and understand weather patterns on a global scale. The LRC’s influence extends beyond hurricane tracking. It taps into the evolving weather patterns that begin each fall, planting seeds that develop into various weather events throughout the year, from winter storms to severe weather outbreaks and tropical storms.
For instance, the quiet hurricane period observed last October provided early signals for this year’s subdued activity. We forecasted 14-19 named storms, significantly lower than the 25-30 forecasted by Weather Bell, 20-27 by Colorado State University, and the average of 23 named storms from the other 25 organizations being tracked this season by the Barcelona Super Computing Center site. The final number of named tropical storms is likely going to end up in the 10 to 15 range.
This meticulous approach to understanding weather cycles is not just about predicting storms, it’s about providing a framework that aids agricultural planning and risk management. As we transition into October and November, new seeds will be set, shaping the weather patterns for 2025. These insights are crucial for anticipating potential impacts on agriculture, from flooding and drought to the timing of severe weather events.
The weather pattern that we have been experiencing is now beginning to change. It just snowed over the Rocky Mountains less than two weeks ago, a sign of the changing seasons. The new LRC will showcase a lot more in the next two months ahead and we look forward to sharing this information and actionable data here in this report each week. If you want to learn more about how Weather 20/20’s LRC model can assist you in making your on-farm decisions, click HERE.
