The Van Trump Report

The Next Farm Growth Model May Look Very Different

There’s an interesting agricultural investment taking place in Canada that I think deserves more attention than the headline might suggest. Mondelēz Canada recently committed capital to Area One Farms Fund V, a Canadian farmland investment strategy that partners with growth-oriented family farms. The stated goals include strengthening agricultural supply chains, helping producers expand, and advancing locally appropriate regenerative agriculture practices. 

All of that matters, but what really caught my attention was how the expansion gets financed. Area One isn’t simply buying farmland and renting it back to producers. Instead, it forms equity partnerships with farmers. The producer contributes what he or she can through cash, land, machinery or other equity, and Area One provides additional capital necessary to help fund expansion. Depending on the partnership, that capital can go toward land, equipment, infrastructure and operating needs. The farmer remains an owner and participates in both the income and appreciation created by the partnership. 

That’s a very different conversation than simply borrowing more money to buy another farm, and I suspect we’re going to be having this conversation much more often in agriculture. Think about the traditional growth model. A good operator builds equity, that equity allows him to borrow more money, and he uses that money to buy or rent additional acres, add machinery, increase working capital and hopefully generate enough additional earnings to continue the process. That model has built some incredible farming operations, but the amount of capital required to keep scaling has changed dramatically.

Land isn’t cheap, machinery isn’t cheap, working capital isn’t cheap and interest certainly isn’t free anymore. At some point, even a very capable operator can run into a problem that has nothing to do with his ability to farm. He simply runs out of balance sheet. That’s what makes this model interesting. Area One’s basic argument is that many producers aren’t short of opportunity or operating ability. They’re short of growth equity. Instead of solving that problem entirely with more leverage, outside investors become equity partners in the expansion. 

That could become an increasingly important distinction. We tend to think about farm consolidation as the biggest operators buying more land and getting even bigger, but maybe another version develops alongside it. Maybe some of the best operators in agriculture eventually manage considerably more acres than they personally own. They provide the operating expertise, someone else provides part of the capital, and the producer still has skin in the game and participates in the upside without having to personally finance every dollar of the expansion.

Area One says its partnerships are specifically designed to keep farmers participating in ownership rather than turning them into tenants or hired managers, including a pathway for producers to increase their ownership over time. That distinction is important because outside capital entering agriculture isn’t new. What’s potentially more interesting is the evolution of structures attempting to align the investor and the operator rather than simply having one own the land and the other rent it.

Then add Mondelēz to the equation. A major food company is investing in this structure partly because it wants stronger farms, greater supply-chain resilience, and more producers financially capable of investing in practices such as reduced tillage, cover crops, precision agriculture, drainage, and irrigation. Historically, companies farther downstream in the food system have mostly interacted with agriculture after production. Farmers produce something, processors buy it, food companies turn it into something else, and consumers eventually purchase it.

Increasingly, large companies have reasons to care about what happens farther upstream. They care about whether enough production exists;they care about the resilience of the supply chain; they care about how commodities are produced; and, in this case, we’re seeing capital move closer to the actual operator. Instead of the relationship simply being, “Grow it, and we’ll buy it,” the model starts to become, “How do we make sure the right producers have enough capital to keep growing?”

That’s a much more interesting question, and producers should be asking questions of their own. If equity capital becomes a larger part of agriculture, what does a good partnership actually look like? Who controls operating decisions? Who owns the appreciation? How is the investor ultimately bought out? What happens in a bad production year? What happens if land values decline? What return does outside capital require, and how much control is a producer willing to exchange for the ability to grow faster without loading additional debt onto the balance sheet?

There isn’t one correct answer, but I think the larger trend is worth watching. Agriculture has historically treated land and capital as the scarce resources. I’m beginning to wonder whether the truly scarce resource in the next phase of agriculture will be exceptional operators capable of efficiently deploying somebody else’s capital. If that’s right, the best producers may eventually have more options than simply asking the bank how much more they can borrow, and the companies and investors that figure out how to identify those operators, align incentives with them ,and provide patient growth capital could influence what the next generation of large-scale agriculture looks like. (Source: newswire.ca, areaonefarms.ca)

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