Today on FARMCON Conversations, Kevin and I are joined by FARMCON partner Jake Espenmiller, President and CEO of Conterra Ag Capital. Jake sits in a unique seat where he can see what is happening across farm balance sheets, operating credit and institutional capital, and our conversation quickly moved to what happens when an operation can look extremely wealthy on paper but starts losing liquidity and financial optionality underneath. We also get into whether farmland has peaked, why some big buyers are backing away, what the strongest operators are doing differently, and how higher interest rates are changing the competition for every investment dollar.
JAKE ESPENMILLER | CONTERRA AG CAPITAL
52:20 — Has farmland finally peaked? – Jake largely agrees with Kevin that farmland may have reached a point where continued appreciation becomes harder. He isn’t calling for a collapse, but low cash returns and a changing buyer pool are starting to alter the math.
55:20 — 70% equity and still running out of options – Jake shares examples of operators with 60%–70% equity on the balance sheet but almost no cash reserves and difficulty securing affordable operating credit. His bigger point: once liquidity disappears, so does your ability to solve the next problem.
1:01:15 — Be careful when the financial lifeline shows up – Kevin warns from personal experience that the capital available when you are desperate can sometimes become the final nail in the coffin. Jake says one of Conterra’s first questions in alternative credit is whether both parties understand exactly how the deal will eventually unwind.
1:04:15 — Agricultural capital has more competition – Jake explains why a Treasury yielding above 5% forces farmland and agricultural loans to compete much harder for investor dollars. Capital providers now have easier, more liquid alternatives available to them.
1:06:20 — What are the strongest operators doing differently? – Looking across Conterra’s portfolio, Jake sees stronger operators creating additional profit centers and optionality through livestock, grain storage, greater control over inputs and other forms of diversification.
1:15:30 — You can afford the neighboring farm. But should you buy it? – Jake says the better question may be what sacrifices you are willing to make if the investment doesn’t perform as expected. Kevin adds one of his favorite rules: never risk what you have and need for something you don’t have and don’t need.
1:25:00 — Kevin on the mistake he made with bankers before going broke – Kevin looks back at his housing-development years and admits he treated his banker almost like an opponent, trying to hide problems in order to keep borrowing. His advice now is exactly the opposite: get the lender behind the curtain early enough that there are still options available.
KEVIN + TODD
2:15 — A handful of relationships can change your entire financial trajectory – Kevin shares a conversation with Jordan about how only four or five relationships may have materially changed the Van Trump family’s business and financial path—and why those relationships usually begin by putting yourself in the right rooms.
7:30 — When does cutting expenses start cutting off opportunity? – A startup deciding to conserve cash sparks a broader conversation about when cutting marketing, networking and customer access may actually accelerate the very problem a young business is trying to solve.
33:00 — Kevin starts putting cash back to work – After carrying roughly 40% cash, Kevin says he has started moving money back into equities, focusing heavily on large companies with strong balance sheets, free cash flow and the ability to fund the next stage of the AI buildout.
37:20 — Kevin is more negative on farmland than he has been in 20 years – After spending most of the past two decades bullish farmland, Kevin believes the growth in the buyer pool may finally be slowing. He isn’t predicting a crash, but questions whether the appreciation of the past can continue when capital has so many more places to go.
44:30 — Kevin on an investment thesis that stopped working – Kevin talks about high-end Kansas City condos and live/work properties that looked like great investments at one price but became much harder to sell as prices climbed and buyers suddenly had more alternatives.
QUICK MARKET CHECK
17:00 — Corn – Kevin remains slightly bullish longer term but believes harvest pressure and uncertainty around production could offer a better entry before demand becomes the next meaningful catalyst.
23:00 — Soybeans – Kevin remains a longer-term bull but has stepped to the sidelines after getting whipsawed. Domestic crush remains supportive, while the market still needs fresh demand headlines to keep the bull story moving.
28:45 — Wheat – Black Sea disruption still hasn’t translated into the U.S. export demand bulls expected. Kevin believes wheat probably needs either a meaningful global weather problem or a major new buyer before the setup materially changes.
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