Brazilian farmers are in the early stages of planting their 2025/26 corn crop. The country’s corn growers have already started planting the first of its three corn crops grown every season. While the 24/25 corn harvest is expected to set a production record, new crop production is facing some uncertainties. Interesting dynamics in Brazil’s ethanol sector might also keep more of the country’s corn harvest off of the global marketplace, possibly opening opportunities for US supplies.
USDA is forecasting Brazil’s 25/26 total corn production at 131.0 million metric tons (MMT), just shy of this year’s estimated 132 MMT, which, if realized, will mark a new record. USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service Post in Brazil recently pegged the 25/26 crop at 131.0 MMT as well, but they also boosted the estimate for this year’s production to a whopping 134.0 MMT. Conab, Brazil’s version of the USDA, is even more optimistic about the 24/25 crop, estimating total production at just over 137.0 MMT. The Brazilian agency has not released its forecast for the 25/26 corn crop yet.
Brazil’s first-season corn crop is usually planted between August and December, then harvested in January-June. The first crop accounted for around 19% of total production in 24/25. Second-season corn, aka “safriha” corn, is planted from December to March, typically following soybean harvest. Safrinha means “little harvest” but the second-crop accounts for a majority of production. In 24/25, it’s estimated to represent around 79% of total production. Brazil’s safrinha harvest runs from June through September. By the end of August, AgRural reported farmers were 98% complete. Third-season corn, planted only in the north and northeast states, has a crop cycle that resembles the United States, with planting occurring in May and harvesting in October. It accounts for about 2% of total production.
Brazil’s corn growers had close to 7% of the 25/26 first corn crop in the ground by the last week of August, with the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná leading. Farmers in some states further north, however, are worried about soil moisture levels being inadequate, including top producer Mato Grosso. The corn planting window just opened there on September 7 so farmers without irrigation will be tempted to hold out for rain before planting.
Similar to the US, Brazil’s corn growers are facing profitability concerns this year. Corn prices in Brazil have been on a steady decline since April amid expectations for a monster 24/25 second-season corn harvest. Factors contributing to this year’s unfavorable economics include the overall decline in global grain prices and the weakening of the US dollar against Brazil’s real (BRL). Generally, a 10-cent increase in the exchange rate could result in a reduction of nearly BRL 5.00 in the price of a bag of corn, according to USDA.
Also similar to the US, Brazil’s farmers are trying to manage ballooning production costs as they watch their revenue shrink. Production costs for Brazil farmers are expected to rise a further +9% in 25/26. While some costs have come down, such as seeds and pesticides, others are set to cost more than +50% compared to last season, including fertilizers, utilities, machinery, and working capital.
The outlook for Brazil’s corn exports in the 25/26 crop season is somewhat complicated by the country’s increasing use of the grain for ethanol production. Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol producer behind the US. However, producers in the past have primarily used sugarcane as their ethanol feedstock. That has changed in recent years as corn-based ethanol facilities have expanded. The country currently has 25 corn ethanol plants in production, with ten others authorized to start construction and at least 20 more in the planning stage.
USDA pegs Brazil’s total corn exports in 24/25 at 43 MMT, up from 38.3 MMT in 23/24. It’s notable that production in 24/25 is set to exceed the 23/24 crop by around +13 million metric tons but exports are only expected to rise by +4.7 MMT. USDA forecasts exports in 25/26 to hold steady at this year’s level of 43 MMT.
One area where Brazil is expected to increase exports is DDGs (dried distillers’ grains). China is a big DDG customer and typically gets most of its supply from the US. However, China authorized shipments of Brazil DDGs earlier this year. Brazil’s DDG production rose +36 in 24/25 over the previous year, thanks to the country’s increased corn ethanol production. Brazil is expected to become a significant competitor to the US in the Chinese DDG market going forward. (Sources: USDA, CONAB, DTN, AgRural)
