When talking about global soybean production, the key focus tends to be on the U.S. and a few South American countries, specifically Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and, to a lesser degree, Uruguay. But over the past few years, Ukraine has quietly become a more significant player in the global soybean market. In fact, Ukraine’s soybean production is more than double Uruguay’s, while the country’s soybean exports are catching up to Argentina’s.
Ukraine’s soybean production and exports have been steadily increasing since Russia’s invasion in 2022. In the 2025/2026 season, USDA estimates Ukraine’s soybean production at 7.6 million metric tons (MMT), an +11% from 24/25 (7.05 MMT) and more than double 20/21 production of 3 MMT.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s 25/26 soybean exports are forecast to reach 4.2 MMT, versus 3.8 MMT in 24/25 and just 1.5 MMT in 20/21. That’s also not far behind Argentina’s estimated soybean exports of 5 MMT this year and far exceeds Uruguay’s exports, which have managed to exceed 3 MMT only twice in the last five years.
According to the International Grains Council (IGC), Ukraine’s increased soybean production was initially in response to domestic demand. However, in the past decade, a marked increase in imports has been the main factor stimulating Ukraine’s soybean acreage growth. “Boosted by a shift away from grains amid ideas of relatively better profitability, the area for threshing expanded especially sharply in 2024-25,” IGC noted in a report earlier this year.
The main buyers of Ukrainian soybeans are EU countries, Turkey, and African markets, including Egypt. Notably, the EU and Egypt are also among the top importers of U.S. soybeans. Additionally, Ukraine is the top soybean supplier within the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), accounting for nearly 70% of the region’s soybean exports over the past five years.
Beyond the ongoing war, Ukraine’s soybean farmers are facing several obstacles that could move them back toward other crops. Among them is a new export tax that the industry says could reduce overall oilseeds production in the country. On July 16, Ukraine’s parliament adopted a law introducing a 10% export duty on soybeans, rapeseed, and canola, with an annual reduction of 1% until 2030, when it will reach and be held at 5%. Ukraine’s ag industry is urging President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to veto the bill.
Farmers and ag groups note that Ukraine experienced a similar situation between 2017 and 2020, when changes to the Value-Added Tax (VAT) on the export of these crops led to a sharp reduction in the area under cultivation. “These legislative changes led to a -34% decrease in the area under soybeans — from 1.99 million hectares in 2017 to 1.32 million hectares in 2021,” the appeal stated. Production plunged from over 4.8 MMT in 18/19 to 3 MMT in 20/21. Losses to farmers amounted to around $110 million per year, according to estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics.
Ukraine’s oilseed industry is also beginning to struggle with an oversupply of oilseed processing capacity. The country currently has some 22 MMT of processing capacity with new plants under construction that could soon raise that to 25 MMT. However, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi said that the processing industry has expanded beyond what can be supplied with domestic raw materials through at least 2030.
The risk is that oilseed processors will be forced to shut down due to insufficient supply from the domestic market. That in turn could have a snowball effect if farmers abandon the crop for fear of having nowhere to sell it, forcing even more processors to shut down and setting back soybean acreage further. Lots of moving parts and pieces in Ukraine right now. It’s going to be interesting to see how things play out. (Sources: USDA, IGC, Odessa Journal, Agrolink)
