Weather forecasters see increasing indications that “El Niño” could emerge later this year, with some models predicting it could become one of the strongest in history. Depending on the timing, the weather pattern could be a significant influence on developing 26/27 crops.
El Niño is part of a larger back‑and‑forth cycle with its opposite phase, La Niña, called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño events are characterized by unusually warm waters along the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño events typically occur every 2 to 7 years, last many months, and then conditions swing back toward neutral or to La Niña, when the eastern Pacific is cooler than normal. The most recent El Niños happened during the winters of 2018-19 and 2023-24.
The ENSO cycle is currently in the waning days of La Niña. Most forecasts see the weather pattern remaining in a neutral phase until it flips to El Niño later this year. The timing of its arrival is highly uncertain this early on, but some models suggest it could appear sooner and be much stronger than initially expected.
In recent weeks, some private forecasters and media outlets have highlighted long‑range models showing a rapid flip from the current fading La Niña into a potentially strong El Niño as early as this summer. A few analysts, including the “European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts” (ECMWF), have even floated the possibility of an unusually intense El Niño, aka a “Super El Niño,” drawing comparisons to major events like 1997–98 and 2015–16 that drove record global heat and major weather disruptions.
By contrast, forecasts from global monitoring groups like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are much more conservative. The NOAA and World Meteorological Organization both indicate La Niña is fading and that neutral conditions are the most likely state through at least mid‑year. Current outlooks put neutral conditions around 60% for spring and early summer, with El Niño odds gradually rising in late summer to early fall, but still far from guaranteed “super” status. Forecasters also stress the “spring predictability barrier,” a well‑known limitation that makes ENSO predictions issued right now less reliable at long lead times.
If a strong or super El Niño does materialize, history suggests there could be meaningful impacts for global agriculture. Past strong El Niño events have tended to push global temperatures to new highs, disrupt monsoons, and alter storm tracks, with knock‑on effects for crop yields, commodity prices, and supply chains.
During past El Niño events (including “super 1997–98 and 2015–16), studies find that global yields on average dip slightly for staples like wheat, rice, and corn, while soybeans can actually see small gains. The real story, though, is regional: drought, floods, and heat waves can crater harvests in one part of the world even as conditions improve somewhere else.
Since 1960, El Niño years have produced some of the worst and some of the best U.S. corn and soy seasons, so ENSO phase alone is a weak predictor of national yield. On average, they run only about -2% below trend. Below are outcomes for US corn and soybeans during past El Niño events that are considered strong or “super”:
Corn and Soybeans
- 1982–83 extreme El Niño: The following 1983 U.S. corn yield came in about -22% below its trendline, making it one of the worst corn years since 1960, with drought and heat in parts of the Corn Belt. U.S. soybean yields in 1983 were about -17% below trend, reflecting many of the same drought and heat stresses that hit corn.
- 1987–88 El Niño: 1988 corn yields were about -25% below trend, again ranking among the sharpest modern shortfalls, tied to severe Midwest drought. 1988 soybean yields were around -20% below trend, another very poor year tied to widespread dryness.
- 1997–98 “super” El Niño: By contrast, 1998 U.S. corn yields ended slightly above trend (around +2%), illustrating that not every strong El Niño is bad for U.S. corn. 1998 soybean yields were modestly above trend (about 1–2%), benefiting from adequate moisture and moderate temperatures in much of the Midwest.
- 2015–16 strong El Niño: The 2016 corn crop was roughly +6% above trend, helped by generally favorable growing conditions in the core Corn Belt. 2016 soybean yields were a standout, about +12% abovetrend nationally.
Looking further south, strong El Niño years generally boost soybean and corn yields in Argentina and southern Brazil by increasing rain. For instance, 1997–98’s extreme El Niño brought plentiful rain that helped push Argentina’s soybean yields about +30% above the 5‑year average. Then in 2015–16, soy yields were about +9% above average, despite late‑season flooding.
By contrast, central and northern regions in Brazil (Mato Grosso, Goiás) during strong El Niño events are typically at higher risk of irregular rains and heat, which can impact both soybeans and corn. Shifts in the onset and distribution of rains during El Niño can shorten the planting window in these regions and stress early soy and second‑crop corn, leading to regional yield penalties even if national totals remain strong.
Bottom line, because losses and gains are distributed unevenly, strong El Niño events tend to tighten supplies of specific crops (often cereals), increase price volatility, and shift trade flows rather than simply collapsing global output across the board. It’s also very early days and the forecasted El Niño pattern could still end up being mild, or never materialize at all. (Sources: University of Illinois, Purdue, Pioneer, USDA, DTN)
