According to new data from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Americans receive over half their calories via “ultra-processed” foods (UPFs), though that share has declined slightly in recent years. Food in this category has been singled out by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his “Make America Healthy Again” agenda as the primary driver of chronic disease in the US. However, the definition of “ultra-processed” foods is fuzzy at best, and the CDC itself has not even established one yet. So what is ultra-processed food and what does the MAHA movement against it mean for agriculture?
Notably, the new report is the first time the CDC has released data on ultra-processed food consumption in the US, and their conclusion aligns with other studies. The issue that many critics have is with how ultra-processed foods are defined. As mentioned, the CDC does not have a formal definition, though the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is allegedly working on one. HHS Secretary Kennedy oversees both the CDC and FDA.
For its recent report, the CDC relied on what’s known as the “NOVA classification system” to define ultra-processed foods. The NOVA system is a framework that attempts to categorize foods based on the level of industrial processing. Level 1 is whole, real food, minimally altered. Level 2 is culinary ingredients. Level 3 contains combinations of level 1 and 2 foods. Level 4 is reserved for ultra-processed, packaged foods made of factory ingredients.
On the surface, it seems simple. However, critics point out that the classifications are hard to apply, and promote thinking about food in terms of processing rather than nutritional benefit. Within the ultra-processed category, examples of food include yogurt, infant formula, unsweetened breakfast cereals, and whole-grain, packaged bread.
What’s more, there is no consensus on whether the alleged ultra-processed version of a food item has lower nutritional quality than its home-cooked counterpart. In fact, the home-cooked version could be worse. For example, if the cook is using a less healthy oil or adding more salt than the processed version.
At the consumer level, these guidelines are adding to the confusing food noise. A growing number of consumers now believe that any amount of processing makes a food inherently bad. Nutrition experts warn that this could unintentionally lead to worse health outcomes. That’s because it could cause decreased intakes of dietary fibre and micro-nutrients if a person is severely limiting their diet to avoid foods perceived as unhealthy or dangerous. This is a particular concern for people that may be food insecure and can’t afford or easily obtain fresh or minimally processed foods, including the elderly.
Additionally, many nutrition experts point out that just because a food is in another NOVA category, aka the “safer” foods, that doesn’t mean it is healthy. For instance, homemade chocolate cake might contain minimally processed ingredients but that by no means makes it healthy. The same could be said for red meat, which has long been linked to cardiovascular disease. At the same time, yogurt, whole grain bread, and granola are arguably nutritionally dense foods, yet are classified as UPFs.
Angela M. Zivkovic, Associate Professor, Department of Nutrition at UC Davis, says the vast majority of research on ultra-processed foods has been observational in nature, where people are asked to report on what they eat and then scientists take that information and apply statistical analysis techniques to explore associations with various health outcomes. Zivkovic stresses that these types of studies can show an association, but not causation.
“However, it is also important to point out that if one eats, say, one snack-size bag of chips with artificial flavors and colors once a month or less, it is extremely unlikely that these types of ingredients would have any negative health effects,” explains Zivkovic. “On the other hand, if one eats a one-pound bag of the same chips twice a day every day, now we are talking about potentially serious doses of these chemicals that may have a chance to accumulate and have measurable negative health effects. The dose makes the poison.”
I should note that the NOVA classification system is recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) but not by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). And as mentioned previously, the FDA is currently working on its own system for classifying processed foods. Importantly, the definitions they land on can be used to shape future US regulations, including what foods are eligible for school lunches and food assistance programs.
HHS Secretary Kennedy and his MAHA commission in a May report (available HERE) laid out three key ingredients that they believe are most responsible for the displacement of “nutrient-dense whole foods.” From the report:
Ultra-processed grains: Found in cakes, cookies, refined breads, candy, and snacks, these grains make up a large portion of the UPF calories that dominate daily intake. Processing grains involves the removal of the bran and germ, which strips away essential vitamins, minerals, and fiber. The stripping of these components can lead to blood sugar spikes, increasing the risk of type 2 diabetes,104 while also displacing healthier, nutrient-rich whole grains from the diet.
Ultra-Processed Sugars: Found in 75% of packaged foods, the average American consumes 17 teaspoons of added sugars daily, which amounts to 60 pounds annually. This substantial intake, particularly of high fructose corn syrup and other added sugars, may play a significant role in childhood obesity, type 2 diabetes, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Alarmingly, 63% of the U.S. population aged 2 and older derives more than 10% of their daily calories from added sugars.
Ultra-Processed Fats: Over the course of the 20th century, U.S. dietary fats shifted from minimally processed animal-based sources like butter and lard—rich in fat-soluble vitamins A, D, and E, supporting brain and immune health—to industrial fats from refined seed oils, such as soybean, corn, safflower, sunflower, cottonseed, and canola. Industrial refining reduces micronutrients, such as vitamin E and phytosterols. Moreover, these oils contribute to an imbalanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio, a topic of ongoing research for its potential role in inflammation.
