There is a lot of talk about a crisis in the US farm economy, and many are still arguing that lawmakers in Washington are taking “too little action.” The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that farmers will enter the 2026-27 crop year with accumulated losses of more than -$50 billion over the past three crop years. Unfortunately, AFBF’s latest analysis projects the economic fallout in farm country will only deepen in 2026.
AFBF’s recent Market Intel report finds that production costs are set to rise for all 9 principal row crops in 2026, pushing break-even prices higher while crop prices remain “insufficient to offset those costs for many producers.” AFBF President Zippy Duval warned at the group’s annual meeting that the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program announced in December does not come close to offsetting the full extent of losses farmers have faced during the past two years.
While final numbers have not been released, farm bankruptcies were surging in 2025. Through September, US court records showed 293 farmers or farm operations filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy, a +36% increase over 2024 during that same time period. Some bankruptcy attorneys also warn that while Chapter 12 is designed to restructure farm debt to help keep farmers in business, it is leading to more total farm liquidations. The trouble brewing in farm country has also seen agricultural lenders tighten access to credit, even as production costs are expected to rise further this year.
The latest data from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) forecast corn production costs to rise approximately +3% in 2026 versus 2025, while soybean costs increase +3.1%. According to AFBF, among the nine principal crops, wheat ($409 per acre), sorghum ($458), and oats ($513) remain at the lower end of the production cost spectrum, while soybeans ($678) and barley ($507) fall in the mid-range in 2026. Cotton ($965), peanuts ($1,194), and rice ($1,336) remain the most expensive crops to produce on a per-acre basis.
AFBF’s analysis shows that the total 2025 operating costs ranged anywhere from $155 per acre for wheat to more than $764 per acre for rice and $631 per acre for peanuts. In 2026, these costs are expected to rise, ranging from $160 per acre for wheat and $774 per acre for rice. Rising costs since 2020 have been driven primarily by sharp increases in interest expenses (+71%), fertilizer (+37%), fuel and oil (+32%), labor (+47%), chemicals (+25%), and maintenance (+27%), alongside notable gains in seed (+18%) and marketing costs (+18%).
Based on the USDA’s preliminary 2026 yield outlook and the agency’s latest cost-of-production estimates, farmers would need corn prices of $5.03 a bushel and soybean prices of $12.80 a bushel simply to break even, according to a Reuters analysis of USDA figures. USDA forecasts for the 26/27 marketing year aren’t out yet, but average farm prices for 25/26 corn are estimated at $4.10 a bushel and 25/26 soybeans at $10.20 a bushel.
Commodity prices remain under pressure and, as most are aware, bumper crops in the US and South America are expected to keep the world well supplied and prices depressed. AFBF says the likely result is a fourth or fifth consecutive year of losses for many farms, even after accounting for crop insurance indemnities and ad hoc assistance.
US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has acknowledged the challenges facing farmers, and the administration is providing some near-term support. The so-called “Bridge Assistance Program” should start issuing payments through the Farm Service Agency in late February. The $11 billion package will deliver support to row crop farmers, but as multiple ag leaders have stressed, it will not come close to covering projected 2025 losses.
AFBF notes that enhancements to safety net programs made via the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” will eventually help, but they don’t go into effect until October 2026. Additionally, the latest package of funding bills that Congress is set to pass does not currently contain any new aid for farmers. A couple of separate proposals have been put forward to provide $15 to $17 billion in additional support, but it sounds like details are still being negotiated.
Ag stakeholders also continue to stress that government payments are not the answer and are lobbying for longer-term solutions, such as year-round E15 and expanded export markets. President Trump recently voiced support for year-round E-15, and Congress is supposed to consider legislation on the matter by the end of February. The Trump administration also continues to tout trade deals that are expected to open new markets for US ag products. However, the latest projections from USDA forecast a -$4 billion decline in US agriculture exports in 2026 compared to 2025. (Sources: American Farm Bureau Federation, Reuters, DTN, USDA)
