| Each year, a brand-new atmospheric pattern develops in the fall and Weather 20/20 takes six to eight weeks studying that pattern, learning its structure, identifying its phases, and confirming its cycle length. Only then, once the pattern is fully understood do we issue the winter forecast. We wait until the pattern is set by early December, when the first cycle is either completed or about to complete and begin cycle 2. This year’s LRC is still evolving, and we know enough now to forecast the weather for the year ahead. We’ve analyzed every storm, every ridge, every temperature swing and the emerging structure is clear. We have Identified two main phases: Phase 1: A colder, wetter storm track capable of producing major winter storms, tapping Arctic air, and leaving the western states dry. Phase 2: A strong trough that digs down the west coast with major storm systems hitting California and warmer air spreading over the eastern half of the nation. And when you understand that blueprint, the LRC, you can confidently predict:when and where major winter storms will trackwhen and where severe weather outbreaks will strikethe timing of Arctic blastswhere droughts and flooding events are most likely to occur, and the timing of these potential disastersand even the seeds and tracks of hurricanes months in advance |
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| The above slide shows one of the clearest early signals of this year’s LRC. On the left, October 14th, a strong storm was intensifying off the California coast as the pattern was still setting up. Right away, we highlighted this in the Intelligence Report and predicted it would return. And sure enough, look at the right side. By November 17th, the evolving pattern produced another series of storms slamming into California. Both of these storms belong to Phase 2 of this year’s LRC, and both occurred within the very first cycle. And here’s the key, what showed up in October and November will show up again, in December, in January, in February, and beyond. The only question now is what will the winter versions of this storm look like? Snow flooding rainfall? A major west coast storm? Or will this be one of the setups that amplifies into a nationwide event? Before we get into this year’s pattern, let’s talk about other pieces to the puzzle, the indices most forecasters lean on: ENSO, the AO, and the NAO. These matter… but they are not the pattern. They influence the atmosphere, but they don’t define it. Think of them as edge pieces of the puzzle, helpful, but incomplete without the LRC. |
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| Now let’s talk about the big piece everyone focuses on first, ENSO. The latest data shows sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have just begun warming again in early December. And this is important: to qualify as an official El Niño or La Niña, you need five straight 3-month averages above +0.5°C or below –0.5°C. This year won’t meet that threshold. So despite all the hype, for the second year in a row, the atmosphere is not delivering a La Niña. The model guidance and the observed warming both point to ENSO neutral conditions for the winter. And what does that mean? It means we won’t have any of the classic La Niña or El Niño-driven impacts this season. |
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| Next, let’s look at two more pieces, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These are not the drivers of the pattern, but they add in a factor that the LRC is capable of showing, and understanding the AO and NAO dip negative help us predict when cold air will be added to storm systems, and help generate more energy with higher temperature contrasts, or the opposite may happen when these indexes go higher into positive territory. So far this season, the AO has shown only weak positive and negative fluctuations, no major dips, no strong spikes. The NAO, on the other hand, dipped negative through much of the first cycle, then moved back toward neutral and positive territory as we moved into December. When the AO and NAO dive deeply negative, below -3 or -4, Arctic air has a much easier path south. Storms strengthen, the jet stream energizes, and you can get high-impact cold outbreaks. When these indexes turn strongly positive, in the +3 to +4 range, Arctic air gets bottled up to the north. Storm systems weaken, and the pattern warms, as we saw near the beginning of this year’s pattern. The key point is that the AO and NAO shape the outcome, but they don’t create it. The LRC sets the storm track, and the repeating pattern, AO, and NAO may help determine how intense each version will be. |
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| Now that we’ve looked at the big-picture drivers, let’s break down the heart of this year’s pattern. This year’s LRC consists of two primary jet stream phases that repeat throughout the season, and these two phases will control most of the major weather events from now through spring. We’ve talked about Phase 1 and Phase 2, but every year, there are one or two moments when the atmosphere amplifies. This happens when the AO and NAO dip negative, allowing Arctic air to surge south while the jet stream buckles and strengthens. When that aligns with Phase 2, the entire setup intensifies. Storm systems dive down the West Coast, hit the Gulf of Mexico or southern Plains, and explode northward, colliding with Arctic air. That clash creates one of the most high-impact winter hazards: a major ice-storm corridor. We expect this year’s LRC to produce two, possibly three of these amplified windows. If blocking develops over Alaska or Greenland, then an Arctic Blast is likely as this amplification takes place, and the storm track sharpens dramatically, leading to snow on the northwest side, warm air surging ahead of the storm, and a stripe of significant icing between the two. This is the kind of setup that separates a typical winter from a memorable one, and the LRC allows us to identify when these windows are most likely to occur. |
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| We’ve now laid out the structure of this year’s LRC, the two main phases, the next question becomes how will this affect the ground you farm, the fields you manage, and the regions you depend on? Agriculture lives and dies by timing, dry windows, wet stretches, cold snaps, and drought trends. And the LRC gives us a head start on all of it. Let’s go into what the pattern is already telling us about moisture, drought trends, and the key windows you need to be ready for. |
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| We will learn a lot more about where drought is expanding or contracting as we move through the winter. But we already have early signals. Let’s take a look at the trends so far, from the first week of October, when this year’s pattern began, to where we stand today. |
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| The California storm systems have already produced a remarkable 2-month precipitation anomaly, much above average across California, extending north into eastern Montana and North Dakota. On the temperature side, most of the nation has begun this season running above average, consistent with the early-phase behavior of this year’s LRC. |
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| It’s time to translate all of this into what really matters for agriculture. Remember, the same recurring pattern that drives winter storms also dictates planting windows, drought expansion or contraction, flood risk, and even pollination stress months before it happens. Let’s take a look at how this year’s LRC is already influencing the nation’s Crop Belt and the key forecast windows you can plan around. |
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| While we already have a strong understanding of the pattern structure, there are still a few uncertainties, including the exact final cycle length, that will sharpen as we move deeper into winter. As that locks in, the timing of wet and dry windows, storm systems, and temperature swings will become even more precise. The Weather 20/20 Vision Dashboard is one of the most powerful tools we offer. It takes everything we’ve just discussed, the cycling pattern, the phases, the storm signals and turns it into actionable forecasts down to your county level. It’s global, it’s local, and it runs one full year into the future, giving you visibility no other system can provide. This first map highlights the percent of average precipitation across the lower 48 from January through June. You can immediately see the signature of this year’s LRC: notable dryness across a few regions, contrasted with a very wet signal focused over California and parts of the Southwest, a continuation of what we’ve already seen in the opening months of this pattern. |
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| As of early December, the LRC model is forecasting below average precipitation in many areas, while California is projected to be quite wet in the next few months during the rainy season. Let’s narrow this down to the agriculture belt shown below. |
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| As of early December, the LRC model is indicating below-average precipitation for a sizable portion of the Corn Belt, especially from South Dakota into Nebraska extending east across southern Minnesota. Meanwhile, parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky are showing signals for more favorable moisture windows. We will also watch closely in this region for severe weather. It’s important to note that these are LRC-driven patterns, not seasonal guesses. As the pattern continues to reveal its exact length and the phases sharpen even further heading into January, these wet and dry windows will become even more precise. |
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| The entire Agriculture Belt is currently projected to run near average to warmer than average based on what we learned from the first full cycle of this year’s LRC pattern. As always, those temperature signals will sharpen as we move through December and into January, but the early trend is here: the dominant phases this year favor warmth across much of the central U.S. One or two brutally cold Arctic blasts are still likely to counteract some of the warmer signature As we wrap up this year’s Winter Forecast Guide, this isn’t the final exam. We will continue monitoring the cycling pattern and share more insights each week in our Weather 20/20 Intelligence report. This winter will bring opportunities, challenges, and a few surprises, but none that we cannot anticipate. Our goal is simple: to help you plan ahead with confidence, whether you’re managing crops, logistics, energy, travel, or preparing your family for what’s coming. If you are attending FARMCON next month, you’ll get the up-to-date forecast from Gary Lezak as he presents on stage. If you would like to learn more about how the Weather 2020 Dashboard can bring actionable information to your decision-making, CLICK HERE. |