Global beef production is likely to remain sluggish in 2026, according to the latest outlook from Rabobank. The Dutch financial services firm says the recent contraction in beef production is expected to affect major producers in Brazil, Canada, and the United States, furthering the decline forecast for 2025 production.
Rabobank’s Q4 2025 update forecasts a -0.8% contraction in beef production in key producing and consuming regions in 2025 compared to 2024. The US is expected to see the largest drop, with beef production volume falling almost -500,000 metric tons (-4%). Meanwhile, New Zealand is expected to experience the largest percentage drop in production, down -4.7%, or -34,000 metric tons. In total, the worldwide contraction reflects a reduction of approximately -410,000 metric tons in global beef supplies compared to 2024 volumes.
Australia stands out as one of the few major beef-producing countries expected to witness production growth this year. Rabobank estimates a +11% increase over 2024 volumes to 2.9 million metric tons, a new record. Brazil production is seen increasing as well in 2025, though only by +0.5%.
Overall, the global production slide is expected to accelerate next year. “Globally, beef production in 2026 is expected to see the contraction continue with an estimated drop of -3.1% (down 1.5 million metric tonnes). Key regions where production is set to decline include Brazil, the United States, Mexico, and Canada,” according to report lead-author Angus Gidley-Baird, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst.
The global beef trade in 2026 will continue to be heavily influenced by US government policies, according to Gidley-Baird. He cites the recent US increase to Argentina beef quotas, which allows greater beef volumes at lower US tariffs. However, it will take time for Argentine production volumes to increase.
According to Fernando Henrique Iglesias, consultant at Safras & Mercados, Meat production in Argentina has been declining for at least two years. Data from the USDA shows that, from 2023 to 2025, the Argentine cattle herd fell from 68.8 million to 67 million head. The projection for 2025 is for a further drop of 100 tons in meat production compared to 2024, repeating the decline recorded the previous year.
Interestingly, Argentina has been filling its beef production gaps with beef imports from Brazil. From January to October, Argentina imported 11,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef, over 20 times more than the 526 metric tons imported in the same period last year.
While Argentina’s production decline is one reason for more Brazilian imports, another has to do with US tariffs. The US hiked tariffs on Brazilian goods starting in April, reaching a peak of 50% by July. The tariffs provided an opening for Argentine exporters to sell more supplies to the US. However, they had to import Brazilian beef to avoid a domestic shortage. The US recently lifted the Brazil tariffs, so it will be interesting to see how it impacts trade flows.
Rabobank Senior Beef Analyst Lance Zimmerman noted at the recent “National Farm Broadcasters Trade Talk” in Kansas City that despite recent market fluctuations, underlying fundamentals of the US cattle industry remain “incredibly strong.” Zimmerman also pointed out that high beef prices are primarily being driven by surging consumer demand, which is at “40-year-plus highs.”
According to Zimmerman, beef supplies have remained surprisingly steady over the past six years. “The consumer has been clearly the MVP of these high prices,” Zimmerman said. He credits robust demand to several factors, including unprecedented quality, post-pandemic cooking habits, and dietary trends like the “Make America Healthy Again,” or “MAHA” movement.
Zimmerman expects US supply will become a more significant factor in supporting prices as ranchers begin rebuilding the beef herd. The intentional retention of heifers will naturally lead to a reduction in market-ready cattle, he warns. At the same time, he urged producers, particularly those also involved in grain and oilseed production where margins have been tighter, not to miss the opportunity that the expansion side of the cycle will present.
“The next several years, we’re going to pull supply out of this market to further prop up these prices,” Zimmerman concluded. “Supply can be just as supportive to this market as demand, which means there’s still some price appreciation ahead for us.” (Sources: Rabobank, Oklahoma Farm Report, CPG, Iowa Farm Bureau)
