China is again pressuring its nation’s hog farmers to aggressively curb production as the industry tries to dig its way out of a massive pork glut. According to China’s state-backed official husbandry association, the pork industry is aiming to shrink the hog herd by as many as 1 million sows, which could have significant impacts on global pork exports, as well as feed demand.
Chinese officials began a soft push to reduce national sow volume in 2024 but producers have actually increased head count. China’s sow breeding inventory was reported at 40.43 million head by the end of June 2025, up by +60,000 or +0.1%. That’s also above the China agriculture ministry’s target of around 39 million.
The elevated numbers came as leading Chinese pork producers added sows in a battle for market share in the last part of 2024 and early 2025. Despite government “suggestions” to curb production, producers were strongly incentivized by increased profitability, thanks in part to falling feed prices and rising hog prices last year. Some companies reported year-over-year profit growth as high as +300% in Q1 2025.
Unfortunately for China’s pork producers, demand by Chinese consumers is not keeping up with the strong pace of production. In 2024, the country consumed approximately 59.5 million mt, accounting for more than 50% of global consumption. However, domestic pork consumption is projected to rise only +0.2% to 59.6 million mt in 2025, according to Platts. Factors such as shifting dietary preferences, an aging population, and a sluggish economy are all blamed for tempering growth.
Sluggish demand this year has already left many Chinese pork producers operating at a loss, with reports estimating a ¥100 (approximately -$14 USD) loss per head sold. USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) reports that farms reliant on piglet sales have fallen to negative margins. And while large producers remain profitable, tightening margins have accelerated the exit of small- and medium-sized producers. Producers that remain are expected to shift investment focus toward technology upgrades rather than herd expansion.
Chinese officials called a meeting with major hog producers on September 16, where they were ordered to reduce the sow herd by at least 1 million head by the end of January 2026. Additionally, companies were ordered to reduce slaughter by -10% and end the practice of “secondary fattening” – where farms buy young pigs for a short fattening phase before slaughter – in order to keep slaughter weights lower. The government has also ended all subsidies and loans for hog farm expansion.
China’s pork glut may already be impacting global pork exports. Chinese officials have rejected an unusually large number of pork shipments this year, reaching a record-high 2,000 metric tons in both June and July. Some of this increase could be tied to retaliation against countries over trade disputes. It’s also a tactic China commonly utilizes to block imports during times of oversupply.
China’s grain imports are also way down. The country purchased just over 20 million tonnes of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum last year and is expected to buy about the same amount in 2025-26. However, that is well below that 60 MMT scooped up in 2021-22. China’s domestic wheat and corn production hit records in 2023-24 and the 25-26 corn crop is expected to be another bin buster. USDA’s latest forecast saw China importing 10 MMT of corn and just 6 MMT of wheat in 25-26.
China’s soybean imports, however, are much more substantial, forecast by USDA at 112 MMT in 25-26, following estimated imports of around 106 MMT in 24-25. If China succeeds in shrinking its hog herd, the country’s soybean demand could sink with it. (Sources: USDA, Rabobank, DimSums, Reuters)
