A “snow drought” in the upper Colorado River Basin is breaking records. Ski and winter recreation businesses have already been feeling the impact. However, the real pain may come later this spring to farmers and communities that rely on the critical waterway.
The Colorado River basin spans parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, and serves over 40 million people across the seven states, 30 tribes and Mexico. Across the basin, this has been one of the warmest, driest winters on record, with federal forecasters now calling it a “prolific snow drought.” Snowpack in key headwater basins is running far below normal, and March 1 streamflow forecasts for parts of the Colorado Headwaters are down around -50% of average.
The challenge is not just how little snow has fallen, but how warm it has been. December was the warmest on record for Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, and those record‑breaking temperatures continued into January. With that warmth, a lot of what would normally fall as snow arrived as rain, especially at mid‑elevations that are crucial for building and holding winter snowpack.
That matters because the basin effectively uses its mountains as a natural water reservoir, storing moisture as snow and releasing it gradually during spring runoff. When there is less snow and it melts sooner, more of that water is lost along the way—soaked up by dry soils, transpired by vegetation, or evaporated during a longer melt season.
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center’s March briefing paints a sobering runoff picture. Seasonal water‑supply forecasts into Lake Powell and key tributaries are “well below normal,” with some scenarios putting spring–summer inflows into the range of the driest years on record if warm, dry conditions persist. In earlier years, forecasts might have called for 70% to 80% of average runoff in January, only to see actual streamflows come in near 40% after months of inefficient melt and soil moisture deficits
Hydrologists are particularly concerned about timing. If the main melt period starts in mid‑March instead of early or mid‑April, the longer, slower runoff window tends to increase losses before water reaches rivers and reservoirs. That not only shrinks the total volume available but can also shift peak flows earlier, complicating everything from reservoir operations to irrigation scheduling and rafting seasons downstream.
Downstream, the snow drought translates directly into pressure on Lake Powell, the major storage reservoir that integrates much of the Upper Basin’s hydrology. With SWE so far below normal and soils still thirsty from previous dry years, inflows into Powell are expected to come in well under the long‑term average, limiting the reservoir’s ability to recover from already low levels. That spells challenges for hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam and for meeting obligations to deliver water to the Lower Basin states and Mexico under existing river management guidelines.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s most probable forecast for Lake Powell shows minimum power pool elevation being reached by December 2026. If the water drops below this point, the Glen Canyon Dam may no longer generate hydroelectricity.
In some Colorado basins, irrigation districts are already warning that they may not be able to deliver a full season’s water. In the Lower Basin, where farms rely heavily on Colorado River allocations delivered through big projects, years of cuts and conservation programs are now being layered on top of this year’s weak snowmelt outlook.
Layered on top of this hydrologic stress is a series of federal deadlines that will shape how the river—and its drought—are managed after 2026. The current operating guidelines, including the 2007 Shortage‑Sharing Guidelines and the basin‑wide Drought Contingency Plan, expire at the end of 2026. The federal government asked the seven basin states to reach a consensus proposal that could feed into the post‑2026 guidelines, with an initial deadline in November 2025 and a second deadline of February 14, 2026.
The states have now missed both deadlines, failing to agree on how to divide future cuts between the Upper and Lower Basins. Interior has made clear it will not wait indefinitely; the department is moving ahead with its own alternatives, aiming to finalize new operating guidelines for Colorado River reservoirs by October 1, 2026, the start of the 2027 water year. (Sources: Western Water, US Drought Monitor, USDA, Colorado Sun)
