US ethanol exports are on track for a record high in 2025, driven by increasing international demand. Through the first seven months of 2025, exports are up +9% 2024’s already record-setting volume. This strong export growth is pushing overall US fuel ethanol production to new highs, even though domestic consumption remains flat.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that between January and July 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol exports averaged 138,000 barrels per day, the highest level for that period since records began in 2010, and +9% higher than the previous annual record set in 2024. Much of the increased demand comes from countries which have higher blending mandates.
European Union countries sharply increased imports due to expanded blending mandates and a rising emphasis on renewable fuels. The Netherlands, acting both as a major importer and re-export hub to other European states, was especially pivotal. “Vortexa tanker tracking data indicate that as the Netherlands has increased fuel ethanol imports from the United States, it has also increased exports to the United Kingdom, France, and Ireland,” EIA noted. India, the United Kingdom, and Canada — all of which have ethanol blending mandates — also continued to import substantial quantities.
According to the EIA, this surge in exports has pushed U.S. fuel ethanol production beyond pre-pandemic levels last seen in 2018, even as domestic demand remains largely unchanged. EIA notes that through the first seven months of 2025, 13% of domestic ethanol production was exported, compared with a record 12% in 2024 and a pre-pandemic high of 11% in 2018. Domestic demand continues to suffer from lower gasoline consumption, which EIA says remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Strong ethanol export demand is expected to continue through 2026 but EIA warns that future growth is subject to policy changes abroad, especially relating to blend mandates and low-carbon regulations. At the same time, domestic consumption is forecast to remain below pre-pandemic levels.
The surge in demand has helped boost profit margins for ethanol producers, according to Kansas State University ag economist Dan O’Brian. “Profits based on that Iowa model, straddling Illinois and Nebraska and parts of Kansas, at least show about +24 cents a gallon in terms of profitability,” said Dan O’Brien.
How long it will last depends on several factors, according to O’Brien, including whether grain sorghum gets used in more ethanol production. O’Brien says he remains hopeful that at least ‘okay’ profitability is ahead, as long as low price feed stocks hold up.
The Renewable Fuels Association is pointing to the marine fuels market as a new outlet for US ethanol, as well as biodiesel, and renewable diesel. RFA President Geoff Cooper highlights the International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposed regulatory framework, known as the “Net-Zero Framework”, that would require shops to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas emissions over time by using lower-carbon fuels in place of traditional fossil-based marine fuel.
Cooper says the market has enormous potential. Ships subject to the new standards typically consume roughly 70–80 billion gallons of fuel per year worldwide. “To put that in perspective, total U.S. ethanol production last year was 16.1 billion gallons,” explains Cooper. “Even if U.S. ethanol captured just 5% of the global maritime fuel market, it would equate to a game-changing demand boost of 4–5 billion gallons, while simultaneously increasing corn demand by 1.5 billion bushels or more.”
Unfortunately, the IMO’s new standards are opposed by the Trump Administration. In a statement issued in August, the Administration said it “unequivocally rejects” the IMO’s framework, noting it would “preclude the use of proven technologies such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and biofuels.”
The IMO convened an “extraordinary session” in early October, shortly after the Administration voiced its concerns. Efforts to move the new framework forward stalled and the session ended with the decision to adjourn for one year without adopting the measures. The IMO will revisit the proposed framework in October 2026. (Sources: EIA, RFA, Farm News Media, Bioenergy Times)
