Corn use in ethanol would increase by +50% if Congress passed legislation that allowed for year-round, nationwide access to fuels with 15% ethanol blends. That’s according to a new study released by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).
NCGA has been pressing Congress to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, a bipartisan bill that enable year-round sales of E15. Biofuel advocates have been working to pass the Act for several years, with versions of the bill introduced in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.
NCGA has highlighted research showing that year-round access to E15 helps farmers and rural communities while bolstering U.S. energy security and saving consumers money at the pump. The group also notes that, as a financial crisis looms, farmers need market-driven demand at a price that returns value to the farm.
According to NCGA, the amount of corn used in ethanol as part of overall corn demand grew rapidly between 2000 and 2010. In 2000, 6.5% of U.S. corn was used for ethanol. By 2010, 38.5% of U.S. corn was used for ethanol. This represents an average annual increase of over +400 million bushels per year.
However, things took a turn In 2011, when the amount of corn used in ethanol declined for the first time. Since then, growth in corn use for ethanol has been mostly stagnant with a slight upward trend. From the report:
The average annual increase has been less than 40 million bushel per year, or less than one-tenth of the growth rate between 2000 and 2010. Corn used for ethanol has also been stagnant as a percentage of overall corn demand. For 2025/26, ethanol is forecast at 34.9% of total corn use.
Over the next decade, USDA forecasts corn use in ethanol to stay near the current 5.6-billion-bushel level and near the current share of total corn use. But the trend for corn production, in the U.S. and globally is expected to continue rising on productivity gains and expanded production area in other nations. Without allowing demand to increase correspondingly, the increased supply will further depress already below-breakeven market prices.
NCGA also points out that future ethanol demand is threatened by declining motor gasoline use. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 2025 Annual Energy Outlook projected a steep drop in gasoline demand over the next decade. Using EIA’s less detrimental “alternative transportation scenario,” NCGA says:
If the national average ethanol blend rate stayed at the current 10.5% level, ethanol used in domestic blended gasoline would decline from the 14.2 billion gallons forecast for 2025 to 13.1 billion gallons in 2035. Or in corn terms, a decline from about 5.1 billion bushels of corn to 4.7 billion bushels of corn; -400 million bushels less corn for domestic ethanol use. And that’s with the less detrimental alternative transportation scenario. With the EIA baseline, a 10.5% average blend rate in 2035 would be 11.6 billion gallons or 4.2 billion bushels of corn: a -900-million-bushel loss in corn for domestic ethanol use. Losses in corn use for ethanol of this magnitude that continue to grow annually would be devastating without an offset in use.
NCGA admits that there is no single solution but suggests Washington can start with a clear domestic solution that can scale as total gasoline use declines: remove hurdles for higher blends of ethanol.
In their October Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts finished motor gasoline use at 136 billion gallons for 2025 and 2026. Given current motor gasoline usage, a 1% increase in the national blend rate equates to 1.36 billion gallons of additional ethanol used domestically, or 486 million bushels more corn used in ethanol. A 5% increase in the national blend rate equates to 6.81 billion gallons of additional ethanol used domestically, or 2.43 billion bushels more corn used in ethanol.
The full report is available HERE.
