Argentine Farmers Expected to Shift More Acres Into Corn
Argentina’s farmers are continuing their shift away from soybeans and into corn, putting the country on track for a record harvest in 2025/26. The Rosario Grain Exchange is forecasting corn acres will increase +16.8%, versus a decline of -7% for soybeans. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange differs slightly from Rosario, estimating a +9.6% gain in corn planted acres while reducing soybean area by only -4.3%.
Rosario Exchange says that this year’s estimated corn planting of 23.97 million acres (9.7 million hectares), if realized, would be the second-largest, behind the record crop of 23/24 (25.45 million acres/10.3 million hectares). The increase is expected to produce a 61 million metric tons (MMT) harvest, up from 24/25’s estimated 50 MMT and substantially higher than the record 52.5 MMT harvested in 23/24. It’s also significantly higher than USDA’s initial projection for a 53 million Argentine corn harvest in 25/26.
There are a couple of things influencing Argentine farmers’ renewed love for corn. First is a continued decline in disease and insect pressure. Some may recall that Argentine corn growers in 23/24, were devastated by an infestation of “corn leafhoppers,” which transmit corn stunt disease. Substantial yield losses of up to 100% can occur in affected fields. It was primarily late-planted corn that was hit the hardest, which saved the overall harvest, but losses that did occur, combined with efforts to fight the leafhoppers and corn stunt, wrecked farmer finances.
Argentina maintains a program to forecast potential infestations, the “National Monitoring Trap Network,” which indicated only minor pest activity ahead of the 24/25 planting season, so farmers began their transition back to corn last year. New strategies to fight the pest have also lessened concerns about its potential impact.
The ongoing switch to corn has been given a further boost this year thanks to excellent soil moisture levels. Argentina plants corn primarily in September, followed by soybeans in October. The Rosario Exchange notes that., with many areas already saturated, much of its forecast is dependent on spring rains heading into the second half of September. If rains are excessive again, it could force farmers to shift to soybeans.
Corn in Argentina also benefits from a substantially lower export tax than soybeans. In late July, the Argentine government permanently reduced the rate on corn from 12% to 9% while the soybean rate was lowered from 33% to 26%. Soybean by-product levies are also steep at 24.5%, which is down from 31% previously. The reductions came amid mounting pressures from ag producers, who are facing tight or negative margins due to weak global commodity prices and consistently high production costs.
A much larger-than-expected corn crop likely means Argentine exports need to be adjusted higher. USDA started with a projected 34 MMT for 24/25 but that is based on projected production of 53 MMT, which is -8 below the Rosario Exchange’s forecast. The Exchange has not yet issued export estimates for the 25/26 marketing season.
The first two graphics below show the Rosario Exchange’s estimates for corn planted area in hectares and estimated production, in that order. The third graphic shows the difference in soil moisture profiles for each of the years 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. (Sources: Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, USDA)
