The Van Trump Report

Thoughts About Corn 02-10-20

Corn traders this week will be closely monitoring the latest coronavirus headlines and the updated USDA supply and demand numbers. The following week, traders will be focused on the new crop projections released at the Ag Outlook Forum. For the time being, prices in the MAR20 contract appear comfortable trading in a sideways pattern between $3.75 and $3.95 per bushel, an area this market hasn’t ventured outside since early-December. Technically, it continues to feel like more heavy support and resistance lies just outside the above-mentioned range. To the upside, the heavier long-term resistance still remains in the $3.95 to $4.15 range. On the downside, the heavier long-term support remains in the $3.60 to $3.75 range. It will be interesting to see if either of these areas is challenged during the next two weeks. Fundamentally, as a bull, I would like to believe the upside has a better chance. I continue to argue that demand is a bit better and quality bushels are a bit less than what the trade is currently forecasting. Unfortunately, bears are quick to point out that Chinese demand remains uncertain, ethanol margins remain suspect, South American weather is mostly cooperative, and U.S. producers are planning on planting several million more corn acres in 2020. Hence, for the past two months, the corn market has been trading in what appears to be a comfortable battleground area between $3.75 and $3.95 per bushel. As a producer, I continue to hold out hope that the upside will eventually be tested and better pricing opportunities remain out on the horizon. I should note, “basis” levels at the Gulf and the rivers have been strong as of late so make sure you are keeping a close eye on cash bids in your local area, some folks are reporting large swings. As a spec, I remain on the sideline and looking to be a longer-term buyer on the breaks.

Spring Crop Revenue Insurance Guarantees: Prices will update daily during the month of February as the price average is determined.

Corn $3.92 (Avg. close of the DEC18 contract during Feb)
Soybeans $9.18 (Avg. close of the NOV18 contract during Feb)

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