This seems to be the biggest question being asked and the answers are varying wildly. I suspect this is what really has Wall Street spooked. We all understand that “containment” is somewhat a foregone thought and that the powers that be are desperately trying to “reduce the curve” of immediate infections in hopes of not overwhelming and crashing our current healthcare system. But by aggressively working to slow the spread and ultimately save lives how long will we extend out the contagion? Some say the virus could come back bigger and badder in the fall for a more dangerous second round and extend the economic slowdown or reset to an 18 to 24-month time frame. that obviously scares Wall Street and worries investors. Others say the economy will come back online much sooner, but there are a ton of questions in what capacity. They are saying almost all of the Chinese government workers are now back at work and some 60% of the private sector is getting back to work. Still, however, traffic data on weekends and nights in major Chinese cities remain extremely light. In other words, Chinese consumer confidence is still not anywhere back to normal. That’s the big question, will the U.S. consumer abide by the strict quarantine and lock-down measures that were implemented by the Chinese government? How spooked will we be when get to come back out? What businesses will remain relevant and which ones will be negatively impacted to the point of no return? Again, I’m simply offering more questions than answers, but that is what I need you to understand. The market is highly uncertain about the length of time the economy will need to hold its breath and how deep we will be held underwater? Two very scary thoughts for most…
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