The Van Trump Report

What’s Expected from the USDA Ag Outlook?

Corn traders have all eyes on the USDA Ag Outlook numbers. The trade seems to be looking for a planted acreage number between 93 and 95 million with an average yield of around 176 bushels per acre and total U.s. new-crop production north of 15 billion bushels. If you want to compare the numbers from this past year, we planted roughly 89.7 million acres in 2019, harvested an average yield of 168 bushels per acre, and produced a total crop of 13.692 billion bushels. For soybeans, most inside the trade are thinking U.S. planted soybean acres could jump by between +8 and +10 million acres depending on weather. Last year the USDA estimated we planted 76.1 million soybean acres. The trade is thinking we could plant between 84 and 86 million in 2020. Wheat traders are looking for U.S. planted acres to be down sub-45 million acres vs. 45.2 million planted last year. At the same time, the trade is not only forecasting the lowest planted acres in 100 years but also a lower yield than last year, perhaps between 49 and 50 bushels per acre vs. the 51.7 bushels per acre yield estimate forecasted by the USDA last year.

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