The Van Trump Report

Will China Turn to U.S. Soybeans as Brazil Struggles with Logistical Hiccups?

Soybean bulls are pointing to rising export tariffs for Argentine “soybeans, meal and bean oil”. There are also some logistical complications brewing in portions of Brazil that we are closely monitoring. This time period between more readily available South American supply might provide a little opportunity for U.S. soybeans. I should caution, the headlines might sound a bit better than they are. China is still booking a lot of soybean from Brazil and U.S. suppliers aren’t competitive for several more months. In other words, China seems comfortable buying from SAM suppliers but that could change for spot deliveries if ports and logistics become more complicated. I will continue to keep a close eye on Chinese headlines. We also have forecasters calling for hotter and drier weather in parts of South America that are worth monitoring. Technically, traders are still thinking the MAY20 contract bulls could have a tough road to climb as they encounter much stiffer resistance up in the $9.15 to $9.35 range. It’s tough to make a bullish case out beyond this level with so many unknowns still revolving around China and the global spread of corona. Producers should still be using rallies to reduce remaining old-crop cash risk. New-crop bushels have more “time”, but the clock is ticking more quickly on old-crop bushels. Keep in mind, there are now fewer than 90-trading days until the beginning of July, so we have to be paying much closer attention to any remaining old-crop supply.

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