I came across some great information from the economic researchers from USDA who put together a study to find the estimated ethanol production and use in eight countries including: Argentina, Canada, China, Colombia, India, Japan, Philippines and Thailand. Using data from GAIN reports they calculated the average expected ethanol-blended gasoline, consumption, production and exports in 2020-21 based on the average growth rates in 2012-14. Included in these estimates are potential imports needed by each country to meet ethanol mandates after accounting for production and exports. Thailand and Argentina have, perhaps, the most potential to reach their medium-term targets. These countries have production capacity that meet their domestic consumption and ethanol imports play a small role in achieving their targets. China, India, Japan and the Philippines would need to double their current blending to reach their goals. Canada would need to increase its blending rate from 6 to 10%. The Philippines, which achieved its target of 10% ethanol in 2016, now has an ambitious blend target of 20% in 2020. Unlike Thailand and Argentina, the Philippines and Canada depend on a large volume of ethanol imports, mainly from the U.S. India and China have a long road ahead to reach their medium-term blend targets, thus there is a possibility for imports form the U.S. and other sources. Based on the ERS researchers estimates, the eight countries would need net imports of more than 6.9 billion gallons of ethanol by 2020/21, assuming that they meet their existing ethanol mandates/targets and open their borders to trade. China and India are among the countries with the biggest need for imports to meet mandates. In addition, among the current largest markets, Canada and the Philippines could continue to rely on imported ethanol, mainly from the U.S. (Source: USDA, ERS – Global Ethanol Mandates)
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